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Nouriel Roubini Warns of Crashes, High Rate 'Megathreat'

  • Published on Sep 30, 2023 veröffentlicht
  • Nouriel Roubini, CEO at Roubini Macro Associates, explains the "megathreat" he sees from higher interest rates, why he expects an economic and financial crash, and US labor market issues. He speaks from Cernobbio, Italy on "Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition."
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Comments • 0

  • Rochelle Trembly
    Rochelle Trembly Month ago +239

    Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy downtrend. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, will you pay off mortgage as a near-retiree, or spread money for cashflow, to afford lifestyle after retirement?

    • David Riggs
      David Riggs Month ago +3

      as most investing-related questions, the answer is, it depends.. my best suggestion is to consider advisory management

    • Philip Batt
      Philip Batt Month ago +2

      @George Barret How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

    • Philip Batt
      Philip Batt Month ago +1

      @George Barret She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing..

  • Cloudy Blaze
    Cloudy Blaze 5 months ago +879

    What has always scared me the most about the inflation is that we might go into a very bad recession, and that would greatly affect the market. I have been able to accrue up to $293k, and I'm worried about a possible wipe-out from the inflation. I read of someone who's been making more than $23k every month despite this recession. Can I pull that off too as a novice?

    • Stephen Potter
      Stephen Potter 5 months ago +3

      This is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market.

  • Leszek Ła
    Leszek Ła 6 months ago +10

    The sell-off on the stock exchanges was provoked by a jump in the cost of CDS for Deutsche Bank, i.e. securities that insure its debt. He reached 192 points on Friday. It was higher than last year's peak in October. On Thursday it was 173 bp and on Wednesday it was 142 bp. At the low of March 6, it was exactly at the quality level of 85 bp.

    • Steve Hsieh
      Steve Hsieh 6 months ago


  • Summerdee223
    Summerdee223 6 months ago +5

    In the early 1990's we had assumable mortgage rates where buyers could assume the seller's existing interest rate. Could that be a temporary solution to the residential real estate crisis, at least in part? Right now anyone who has a 3.5% or lower interest rate isn't selling unless that absolutely have to. Even folks who would like to move won't give up that interest rate unless they are downsizing or paying cash or are forced to. I truly feel bad for those who are trying to buy their first home. The young adults have really gotten a raw deal up to this point. I sure hope it changes for them.

    • 22robr
      22robr 6 months ago

      it has to and it will

    • DrScopeify
      DrScopeify 6 months ago +1

      No, that's no a good idea. The entire reason of raising rates is to slow down the economy and cause pain. House prices are too expensive no? So why would you want to use a method that would let them keep on rising creating a risk of a bubble? No, that's a bad bad idea. If houses in the USA were CHEAP the asset class was under value while you were trying to fight inflation, then yes, that idea would work but asset prices are not cheap in the USA they are over valued have a look at the appreciation in the last 3 years, no no, prices need to come down.

  • Patrick Brussels
    Patrick Brussels 4 months ago +205

    There has been considerable discussion regarding a June rally and the potential for certain stocks to experience substantial growth during this season. Unfortunately, I don't have specific information on which stocks might be involved. However, I understand that you have recently sold your home in the Boca Grande area and are considering investing a lump sum in the stock market before any potential rebound. It is challenging to determine whether this is an opportune time to buy, as market conditions can be unpredictable. It may be beneficial to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance based on your individual circumstances and goals.

    • Jessica Squire
      Jessica Squire 4 months ago

      The reality is that nobody possesses all the answers. It is essential to establish your own process, effectively manage risk, and remain committed to your plan regardless of the circumstances. This requires a willingness to learn from mistakes and constantly improve your approach.

    • Erik Kurilla
      Erik Kurilla 4 months ago

      It took me five years to realize the futility of trying to predict market movements solely based on chart analysis. The unpredictability of the market made it clear that such predictions are unreliable. The absence of a mentor during that period resulted in five years of painful experiences. However, I eventually learned to align myself with the direction the market wanted to go and adopt a simpler, disciplined approach.

    • Lemarie Cooper
      Lemarie Cooper 4 months ago

      One highly effective technique that many people may not openly acknowledge is staying connected with an investment adviser. Drawing from personal experience, I can confidently attest to the exceptional skillset possessed by these professionals. Since 2022, I have successfully increased my portfolio by over $800,000. I recently acquired my third property for rental purposes, and credit for this accomplishment goes to my investment adviser, *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS*

    • Patrick Brussels
      Patrick Brussels 4 months ago

      @Lemarie Cooper *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS* demonstrates a profound understanding of her field. After discovering her online page and thoroughly reviewing her resume, educational background, and qualifications, I was genuinely impressed. It is reassuring to know that she operates as a fiduciary, ensuring that she acts in my best interest. I have reached out to her by sending a written message.

    • Erik Berg
      Erik Berg 3 months ago

      can i send you my money so that you can invest it for me? I dont now what to do with it.

  • Riggs Nicole
    Riggs Nicole 4 months ago +1064

    Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.

    • lipglosskitten26
      lipglosskitten26 4 months ago +3

      I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value

    • Martín Giavarini
      Martín Giavarini 4 months ago +3

      This is the problem! Most times people with little or no knowledge of the stock market try investing by themselves. It once happened to me, then I learned my lesson and contacted a US-based finance consultant by name Catherine Morrison Evans and everything changed. In in the first quarter of this year i made $370k and counting.

    •  Herman Ramos
      Herman Ramos 4 months ago +2

      @Martín Giavarini Hello there, please how do i find the lady you just mentioned?

  • Quinn Conor
    Quinn Conor Month ago +147

    Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

    • Adonis Orion
      Adonis Orion Month ago +2

      Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals

    • Stefanie Marine
      Stefanie Marine Month ago

      Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

    • liu zhang
      liu zhang Month ago +1

      @Stefanie Marine I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

    • Stefanie Marine
      Stefanie Marine Month ago +5

      There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her

    • liu zhang
      liu zhang Month ago

      @Stefanie Marine Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

  • Clone King
    Clone King 6 months ago +1

    This is a spot on brilliant analysis by the great Economic mind Nouriel Roubini.

  • Avengerie
    Avengerie 6 months ago +19

    Nouriel is lucid as always.

  • hothi phong
    hothi phong 4 months ago +551

    The ongoing banking crisis is far from reaching a resolution. Those with more than a decade of experience understand that credit crises do not dissipate within a mere two weeks. It's amusing to witness some people believing that everything has already concluded so swiftly. We are currently witnessing a credit contraction that will inevitably result in a substantial overall contraction.

    • itzel torreson
      itzel torreson 4 months ago

      Over the years, I have learnt not to trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor and it has been paying off. No major loss has ever been recorded since 2019 i started. I'm never going back to banks full time.

    • rylee macmahon
      rylee macmahon 4 months ago

      I don't know much about the market, but based on what little knowledge I have of economic supply and demand, this is the best time to venture into the market, but the only thing holding me back is the constant fluctuations in prices, which it's not supposed to be a problem, but i really need guidance because i want to use this avenue of everything being on discount to build a portfolio that pays dividends and takes care of me in retirement.

    • marley capron
      marley capron 4 months ago

      @rylee macmahon I must say profoundly that "DEBORAH DIVITO WELCH" does a good job. She is quite the genius in portfolio diversification.

    • rylee macmahon
      rylee macmahon 4 months ago

      @marley capron I am going to look her up too, I have about $81k i want to start with, might be small but it's better than nothing though. Since the 08 crash is playing out again.

    • akira krusemark
      akira krusemark 4 months ago

      credits to DEBORAH DIVITO WELCH, one of the best portfolio manager's out there. she's well known, you should look her up.

  • Rose Roland
    Rose Roland 6 months ago +604

    The market and the Fed consistently underestimate the sticky nature of inflation. The markets are still unsure if the Federal Reserve will continue to its plan to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, despite the fact that bond yields are rising while stock prices are falling. What is the greatest strategy to take advantage of the current bear market while I'm still deciding whether to sell my $401k worth of stocks?

    • Sven Grot
      Sven Grot 6 months ago +6

      Even though there will probably be more pain in the future, investors should look for stocks like Royal Philips NV and Alstom SA that have been sufficiently battered down to be a bargain or get a great portfolio manager.

    • Lloyd Bernard
      Lloyd Bernard 6 months ago +4

      @Sven Grot That's why I'm creating more income streams that I have complete control over. These will take me places that my day job never could. The earlier you start investing your money and putting it to work, the more time compound interest has to work its magic on your portfolio. This is how I'm going to achieve early retirement and it's possible for everyone. understand , know the path needed and stay committed to the craft

    • Louisa Irvin
      Louisa Irvin 6 months ago +4

      @Lloyd Bernard How are we going to achieve all that given that the market has being a mess most of the year seems farfetched. I keep hearing that the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a 75 hike. But isn’t it also pricing in a dovish fed that’s going to pívot relatively quickly?

    • Lloyd Bernard
      Lloyd Bernard 6 months ago +5

      @Louisa Irvin My advisor KAITLIN ROSE STERNBERG is highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

    • Louisa Irvin
      Louisa Irvin 6 months ago +5

      @Lloyd Bernard Thank you for this tip , I must say, Kaitlin appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, educational background, and qualifications, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.

  • bset days678
    bset days678 6 months ago +194

    This global collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 9%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

    • Selena jack
      Selena jack 6 months ago +1

      The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.

    • Roddy Woods
      Roddy Woods 6 months ago +1

      I agree, having a portfolio-advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a license portfolio-advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.

    • Kayla Wood
      Kayla Wood 6 months ago +1

      Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one

    • ARandomPerson
      ARandomPerson 6 months ago +4


  • Sgn
    Sgn 6 months ago +17

    Dr. Doom's on point about the systemic risk and wage inflation bit.

  • Doge Gamer
    Doge Gamer 6 months ago +4

    The banks like the stress test regulators ALL forgot amount duration and rate risk. They had been at zero and negative so long they couldn’t conceive of an inflationary world.

  • djayjp
    djayjp 6 months ago +1

    It wasn't just rising rates, it was the trifecta of rates rising faster than expected, unusually high inflation (bonds with negative real returns), and the Fed selling Treasuries.

  • KJ kj
    KJ kj 6 months ago

    Working from home should lower the cost of labor in some cases, labor has to compete with other applicants that they would not have to if it was restricted to specfic geographic area. If a boss can't manage a WFH crew, fire that boss and get someone who can. Simple as that.

  • slovokia
    slovokia 6 months ago +5

    The interesting question is can governments and central bankers determine real interest rates on sovereign debt?

  • Victor Muscella
    Victor Muscella 6 months ago +21

    The world has never been so highly educated like it is now. But I've never seen so much incompetence Iin managing the economic systems, like it is in the present time. Very sad😢.

    • Death Larsen
      Death Larsen 6 months ago +2

      Bc it's a grift graft scam

    • Matt Doan
      Matt Doan 6 months ago +1

      Yeah, they know what they're doing. But they dance to the tune of perverse incentives.

    • A Leski
      A Leski 6 months ago +1

      Educated??? More like indoctrinated

    • an0therDimensi0n
      an0therDimensi0n 6 months ago +2

      highly educated is ironically the thing that will do us in. but if it eventually leads to a much more simple way of life, i root for a crash.

  • David Gray
    David Gray 5 months ago

    I think I saw this chap a comedy club in London a few years ago, his delivery is still dead on target and he has developed the character he has created so skilfully even further. Well done, I think he actually comes from Birmingham England, he’s got that accent just right though. All the best from the U.K.

  • Diana Rabbani
    Diana Rabbani 5 months ago +586

    The stock market has been a really tough one this past year, but I watched an interview on CNBC where the anchor kept mentioning "Elisa Angele Esparza ". This prompted me to get in touch with her, and from August 2022 till now we have been working together, and I can now boast of $540,000 in my trading portfolio.

    • Jonathan Burtnick
      Jonathan Burtnick 5 months ago

      That's right, getting in touch with a consultant during the pandemic was how I was able to scale through the crazy stock downtrend.

    • Naomi Gonzales
      Naomi Gonzales 5 months ago

      That's massive. Can you please connect me with your personal broker, I would love to work with her

    • Diana Rabbani
      Diana Rabbani 5 months ago

      @Naomi Gonzales Elisa Angele Esparza is widely known. You can verify her and use her services if you want.

    • Scott Juarez
      Scott Juarez 5 months ago

      @Jonathan Burtnick Thanks for the info , found her website and its really impressive

  • attituderoyale
    attituderoyale 6 months ago +22

    I like how straightforward he is.

    • Parrot Boss
      Parrot Boss 6 months ago

      you should be afraid. he sound like a scamer

    • Teddy Bear Roosevelt
      Teddy Bear Roosevelt 6 months ago +3

      @Parrot Boss I wouldn’t call him a scammer but rather a perpetual pessimist.

    • Parrot Boss
      Parrot Boss 6 months ago

      @Teddy Bear Roosevelt but he is not honest.

  • Steve McGuffey
    Steve McGuffey 6 months ago +3

    This guy is good! Show more of him, great analysis.

    • Spahi77
      Spahi77 6 months ago

      Nouriel Roubini, Maverick of wallstreet, Michelle DiMartino Booth,

    • Jason Edwads
      Jason Edwads Month ago

      Do you want to walk back this comment? He was in fact, not good and got smoked bahah

  • Brett Nicholas Bing
    Brett Nicholas Bing 5 months ago +155

    With changes in the economy leading to instability in the stock market, I am considering liquidating my $730k portfolio consisting of bonds and stocks. Someone else in the same situation?

    • Alice Bradley
      Alice Bradley 5 months ago

      It would be prudent to conduct a thorough assessment of the companies you have invested in and their potential for future growth, especially considering the possibility of a further market downturn. Engaging the services of an investment advisor to help restructure your portfolio could help alleviate any anxiety and improve your investment strategy. I have personally found this approach to be successful in reducing stress levels.

    • Brett Nicholas Bing
      Brett Nicholas Bing 5 months ago

      As the stock market remains unpredictable, I have been considering the option of seeking assistance from advisors to guide me through these uncertain times. Nevertheless, I am still in the process of assessing their ability to provide the necessary support I require.

    • Alice Bradley
      Alice Bradley 5 months ago

      "MARIA ELENA MONTES ADVISOR" an esteemed coach known for her proficiency in her area of expertise. You probably might have come across her. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can carry out a quick internet research on her name for more info. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so...

    • Brett Nicholas Bing
      Brett Nicholas Bing 5 months ago

      Thank you so much for the recommendation.

    • Gabriel Ribeiro
      Gabriel Ribeiro 5 months ago

      While the concept of seeking aid from a financial adviser may be controversial to some, recent statistics from Investopedia reveal that there has been an over 41.8% increase in demand for financial advisors since the pandemic. As for Maria, I cannot confirm whether she is currently accepting new clients, but it may still be worth attempting to contact her to find out.

  • nyhammer1
    nyhammer1 6 months ago +3

    Nourel probably sells a lot of books getting interviewed about his doom and gloom all the time. If you have followed him for the last 15 years you have a lot less money than if you had followed normal investment advices.

  • sirus312
    sirus312 6 months ago +1

    I mean he isn't wrong, the issue is we don't want to face the music and reset the deck. Its the hardest thing. So we keep tampering and changing the rules/game to make sure its working. Rather than let nature sort it out. We are only here due to millions/billions of years of natural evolution. It would be arrogant to think we could magically manipulate these 'levers' and continue the juggling act.

  • Brett A Rogers
    Brett A Rogers 6 months ago +1

    Would it help if the FED backstopped treasuries so banks know their worst case scenario? To word this differently, FED buys treasuries tom keep them from dropping to low in price - keeps yield of 10 year below 3.5%

    • Plutocrazy
      Plutocrazy 5 months ago

      The feds goal is to contract the monetary supply to tackle inflation. Buying treasuries increases the monetary supply. Also, artificially pinning low yielding treasury bonds to high yielding treasury bonds would create a huge arbitrage opportunity where one can just buy the high yields and sell the low yields, and pocket the difference for free. This would further increase the monetary supply without limit since the arbitrage opportunity would be endless.

    • Brett A Rogers
      Brett A Rogers 5 months ago

      @Plutocrazy I don't follow. Pinning yields keeps them at say 3.5 or lower. No free money

    • Plutocrazy
      Plutocrazy 5 months ago

      @Brett A Rogers Buying treasuries -> Increase in monetary supply -> Inflation. Lowing interest rates -> increase in credit supply -> Inflation.

    • Brett A Rogers
      Brett A Rogers 5 months ago

      @Plutocrazy i don't think buuing bonds is inflationary. Treassury and fed on same team.

  • hornet224
    hornet224 6 months ago

    Part of the run on banks by depositors is because savers were paid a whopping 1/2% on savings while credit card rates at 20% or more.

  • clamato54
    clamato54 6 months ago +18

    Beautiful location Nouriel, I think American office workers have pushed the work from home much further due to overreliance on long distance commuting prior to the pandemic, the suburban experiment is failing in this regard

    • DrScopeify
      DrScopeify 6 months ago

      Suburban living is not an experiment it's a way of life. However during COVID people were not just moving to suburbs they were moving to totally different states, cities and some to rural areas and if you ask them to come back to the office they will not. This is why workforce participation has fallen a bit as some have retired early. The funny thing is that that the solution to get people back to work if they are able to retire early is inflation. Inflation will erase old wealth and force people to go out and make more money. So maybe the FED should leave inflation a bit higher for a while.

  • G. Κ.
    G. Κ. 4 months ago +2

    Rubini successfully predicted 4783 of the last 2 crashes

  • Sohel Hussain
    Sohel Hussain 5 months ago

    Roubini been waiting 14 years for this moment.

  • Jason Conley
    Jason Conley 6 months ago +2

    Roubini has been getting paid to predict 'crashes' for the past 15 years. GL following him

  • MIchael Guzman
    MIchael Guzman 5 months ago +141

    The failure of Silicon Valley Bank has torn into global markets, with investors ripping up their forecasts for further rises in interest rates and dumping bank stocks around the world. I have pulled out more than $340k from my bank. After all, the FDIC covers only up to $250,000, and the implosion could have bad effect. Looking to invest into the stock market now. Does anyone know how I could go about it?

    • Aden McAnelly
      Aden McAnelly 5 months ago +2

      I think it's great to use an invėstment advisór to invest. Before speaking with an advisór in the heat of the 2008 financial crisis, I was actually having terrifying nightmares. In summary, with the help of my advisór, I grew my initial invėstment from $120,000 to over $1.5 million in 2012 and then purchased my first invėstment property.

    • Kevin Meaders
      Kevin Meaders 5 months ago

      @Aden McAnelly I've been looking into advisers recently because the market news hasn't been too good. Who was the individual who guided you, and is he/she still active?

    • Aden McAnelly
      Aden McAnelly 5 months ago +4

      Yes, I agree and right now the markets are going crazy. This is the best time to observe them, get to know them better and strike when the opportunity arises. I learned that from my advisor, "LISA ELLEN SHAW", she has seen dozens of market cycles over the past decades, and she has some idea of ​​how they move, why they move and what comes next.

    • Kevin Meaders
      Kevin Meaders 5 months ago +1

      Thanks, her website popped up on the first page immediately I searched her, I read through her resume and seems pretty tight, so I booked a call to discuss with her.

    • Steven Morris
      Steven Morris 5 months ago +1

      Yea she’s tight alright 😮😊
      Only in your mind though

  • Archie Woosung
    Archie Woosung 5 months ago

    Presumably many still borrow as much as they can afford for a mortgage & even if they're on a fixed interest rate this is only or a limited period, so if the mortgage rate doubles eventually so will their repayments, but they borrowed the most they could afford to repay at the lower rate so....

  • Frank Blangeard
    Frank Blangeard 6 months ago +1

    1:31 "A hundred of the smaller banks are literally insolvent".There are more than 4000 commercial banks in the U.S. If only 100 of the smaller banks are in trouble then that indicates that the banking system in the U.S. is generally in great shape.

    • Teddy Bear Roosevelt
      Teddy Bear Roosevelt 6 months ago +1

      Till the collapse of a few banks causes all banks to stop lending out money to each other as happened in 2007/2008 or they stop to issue issue loans or one of the other things that could go wrong and then we’re fucked…

  • Rn Kn
    Rn Kn 6 months ago +3

    It sounds like markets are a terrible system to rely on, when we can simply choose to be organized differently.

    • Lewis
      Lewis 6 months ago

      I don’t know, markets don’t work properly when they are being poisoned by poor fiscal policy. Capitalism can be manipulated by silver tongues demagogues the way socialism can be too. We need to be careful what we wish for.

    • Ant Poo
      Ant Poo 6 months ago

      When is the last time markets decided anything?

    • Lewis
      Lewis 6 months ago +1

      @Ant Poo I think he means for deciding the value of things. Which is all a market is at the end of the day

  • Nations & Debt
    Nations & Debt 6 months ago +1

    This is the most correct dude I’ve ever seen in social media

  • Christopher Beyer
    Christopher Beyer 5 months ago +1

    Roubini’s record is near perfect, anytime he yells fire, you wait 3-4 weeks and go the opposite direction

  • Anthony Argento
    Anthony Argento 6 months ago +2

    I'm tellin ya, the only way out for these midtier banks is to increase the risk profile of their portfolio.

  • Richard Green
    Richard Green 4 months ago +1

    Roubini has made a career out of one correct guess.

  • OC Vegas Property
    OC Vegas Property 6 months ago

    I haven’t followed this guy before so don’t know his track record of being dr doom but he seems to be on point now.

    • CharlieBoy
      CharlieBoy 6 months ago +4

      It's easy for bears to be "wrong" today when the fed and treasury can create a fantasy world with endless money printingb

    • Jerry Kaye
      Jerry Kaye 6 months ago +2

      I’m a retired senior banker who’s been listening to Roubini since 2007. In my opinion he is always correct in seeing the major forces at work driving economies and markets. However, governments always step in with massive bailouts and can-kicks to avoid the worst of the outcomes he predicts. Think of him as a “floor” for your own economic projections, not a most likely scenario. His insights are quite valuable even if his projected outcomes don’t always materialize.

    • CharlieBoy
      CharlieBoy 6 months ago

      @Jerry Kaye I think that's a very astute comment. Are you concerned that they are running out of road to kick the can down? That we might be in for a lost decade scenario? I assume they will choose inflation and spending over a true correction and austerity. I'm predicting a stagflationary scenario to develop where we have to relearn the horrible lessons of the 70s. Do you feel the same? Hope you're enjoying that retirement 👍

    • Jerry Kaye
      Jerry Kaye 6 months ago +1

      My own crystal ball doesn’t see further than a few months, and because of my training as a banker, skews toward seeing downsides more clearly than upsides. Relative to market expectations, I believe inflation will be higher for longer for structural reasons that higher interest rates alone cannot solve, and that oil prices will also be higher for longer. So yes there is a non-zero probability of a stagflation scenario. Government interventions and can kicks are generally unpredictable with respect to amount and timing. The only long term projection I am confident about is that humankind’s attempt at reigning in climate change will be too little too late (a classic tragedy of the commons problem) and sooner than people think there will be climate refugees on a massive scale (a classic shrinking waterhole problem). Let’s hope innovations like carbon capture, fuel cells and fusion save the day because windmills, solar and electric cars won’t scale quickly enough.

  • Glow Wurm
    Glow Wurm 6 months ago +2

    His point re mortgages is an interesting one, we know about the bond losses but what’s a mortgage worth when the interest on that loan is so low?
    I’ve been overly bearish to date and my shorts have cost me bad. But the recession is coming, it’s almost inevitable now…. Cash time I think.

  • P H
    P H 5 months ago +1

    Just a question: How often has Nouriel been right on his doomsday predictions over the last 30 years that he has been making them?

    • Jason Edwads
      Jason Edwads Month ago

      He missed this one again lol. He is so bad

  • srikar k
    srikar k 6 months ago

    Does Bank don't have forecasting models to foresee the situation based on past/current economic conditions? How did these bank managers miss the basics which you have mentioned and invested heavily in bond markets during rising interest rates? Does a credit crunch lead to monetary tightening and eventually put some brakes on inflation?

    • Anubis
      Anubis 6 months ago

      Corruption, greed and hubris, is why my friend.

    • Han Ooi
      Han Ooi 6 months ago

      Look, somebody was buying those bonds, right? Could be your pension fund, your bond mutual fund, your life insurance company, or your bank. These bonds were sold meaning a bunch of institutions somewhere are having problems.

  • Julian Rossi
    Julian Rossi 6 months ago +18

    Judging by his very last point, sounds like we are heading for stagflation

    • slava key
      slava key 6 months ago +1

      Who cares

    • Lewis
      Lewis 6 months ago +9

      In the U.K. we are already here. 10% inflation that won’t go down and literally 0.2% GDP growth.

    • 22robr
      22robr 6 months ago

      yes, because the way of avoiding it is to keep on hiking interest rates and it looks like they are getting dovish on doing that.

  • Olga Wilson
    Olga Wilson 2 months ago

    an accurate report. Archived.

  • Simon Charles
    Simon Charles 12 days ago +9

    Keeping this to myself isn't a good idea, I decided to tell everyone so you guys can all benefit from this. People keep talking about Stacy Garric but I never knew how her software works until she show me, I will forever be grateful for her strategies of making big profits....

    • Simon Charles
      Simon Charles 12 days ago

      You are right, to be a successful person in life require him or her of hard work and time

    • Jason Simpson
      Jason Simpson 12 days ago

      You are right. Been thinking of going into gold and cyptocurrency

    • Jason Simpson
      Jason Simpson 12 days ago

      It's obvious everyone is doing this online Investment

    • Daniel
      Daniel 12 days ago

      Investment is the key to achieving success with the current pandemic slowing down so many businesses aww

  • Laila Alfaddil
    Laila Alfaddil 5 months ago

    This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!

  • Tom Donovan
    Tom Donovan 6 months ago +3

    Excellent guest good interview

  •  Benoit Massicotte
    Benoit Massicotte 5 months ago +1

    Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy.

    • lipglosskitten26
      lipglosskitten26 5 months ago +1

      Your best option if you are unfamiliar with the markets is to seek advice or help from a consultant or investing coach. I know it sounds simple or generic, but talking to a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. For me, it's the best method to enter the market right now.

    • lipglosskitten26
      lipglosskitten26 5 months ago +1

      @Angelica Aquino My consultant is‘’Christine Jane Mclean’’ I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her trade pattern and haven't regretted doing so.

  • Ricky Bobby
    Ricky Bobby 6 months ago +3

    They thought rates would go negative!

  • n k
    n k 6 months ago

    Wage inflation is a response to price inflation arising from various sources including price gouging by companies and the war in Ukraine. But we won’t deal with those sorts of issues. Instead it’s hike interest rates to hammer the average person and small businesses whilst leaving untouched the massive wealth accumulated by the rich and corporations from quantitative easing and Covid measures.

  • ironman tooltime
    ironman tooltime 6 months ago

    Are 30 yr mortgages really funded with short duration debt? A well run bank shouldn't hold this kind of duration risk. If mortgages are priced to 10yrs, then whoever holds the MBS written at low rates may be facing paper losses? Mini subprime crisis could be a duration crisis on whoever is holding the can?

  • Peter de Luca
    Peter de Luca 6 months ago +2

    Commercial banks are inherently flawed. They create money as credit. When loans default, the economy falters. They also risk their depositors' money. If you look at the past two centuries in the U.S. you will see that all boom and bust cycles were caused by commercial banks.
    The Fed backs these flaws by printing money. The money printing causes moral hazard. Banks know they can take on more risk because they are protected. The FDIC also causes moral hazard.
    Commercial banks should only make money by charging fees to protect people's money and to conduct transactions.
    Our politicians look the other way. The banks run the show.
    The definition of insanity: Doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result.
    Peter de Luca: Economist

  • Jupiter James
    Jupiter James 6 months ago +5

    Dr Doom calling the bear market for the past decade - hes the definition of a broken record!

  • Jeffrey Wong
    Jeffrey Wong 6 months ago +1

    Good job!

  • HA R
    HA R 4 months ago

    All this doom and gloom is 💯 EXCEPT for the fact that the fed has decided to remove risk from the market...

  • Will The Thrill
    Will The Thrill 6 months ago

    This guy tells it like is

  • miraculixx
    miraculixx 6 months ago +3

    Remote vs in-office: it's obvious that productivity is higher with remote work. Just think reduced cost/time for commuting, office space etc

  • D. DYO
    D. DYO 6 months ago +2

    Does this distinguished gentleman ever have anything good to say or ever provide solutions?

  • WeMustResist
    WeMustResist 6 months ago +2

    He knows the basics when others forget them. That is why he looks like a master, and they look like failures.

    • pbr1952
      pbr1952 6 months ago +1

      And he is never right, so whats your point?

  • Jamie Rose
    Jamie Rose 6 months ago

    If the government wants to help on bonds, allow purchase price payout for needy banks.
    The government's increase of it's lending rate caused these bonds to drop.
    The government should take care of these institutions.
    Citizens take responsibility for their actions, the government shoukd too.

  • Free Liberty
    Free Liberty 5 months ago

    Dont blame bank managers for printing money and increasing inflation... 😃

  • Dave Huntsman
    Dave Huntsman 6 months ago

    Bothered that he takes the same tired view that wages- which are STILL behind productivity- will be behind stagflation & a hard landing, when data says this time period is seeing excess profits making an above-normal contribution to inflation et al.

  • slava key
    slava key 6 months ago +1

    It really needs to crash, so it will teach criminal financial entities a lesson!

    • Teddy Bear Roosevelt
      Teddy Bear Roosevelt 6 months ago +2

      Yeah that whole 2008 moral hazard narrative we need to bring back!!

    • slava key
      slava key 6 months ago

      @Teddy Bear Roosevelt I think it will stop them at least for a bit

  • AtlanticIslander
    AtlanticIslander 6 months ago +3

    Just a quick note: ALL banks are always technically insolvent, period. That’s just the fractional reserve system. So the question really is whether regulatory bodies will maintain that system or let the entire house of cards crash, leading to a massive depression worldwide. I think it’s obvious that’s not going to happen.

    • Harry
      Harry 6 months ago +5

      You're confusing liquidity with insolvency

    • AtlanticIslander
      AtlanticIslander 6 months ago +3

      Replace the word with liquidity then, the point still stands. ALL banks are insolvent (you want to call it illiquid) if they had meet all deposit requests, meaning they would default on that and effectively be insolvent. Even if the fed increased capital reserve ratios to something like 25-50%, they’re still insolvent

    • utpharmboy2006
      utpharmboy2006 6 months ago

      right. absolutely NOTHING will happen.

    • Teddy K
      Teddy K 6 months ago +2

      @AtlanticIslander this is true for any bank at any time, they are in the business of lending money and keeping what would be a normal reserve for withdrawals. The only way any bank could survive a complete run is if they left all deposits in the vault. In that case how would a bank earn any money, or anyone get a loan for anything?

    • GimmeShelter1969
      GimmeShelter1969 6 months ago

      @utpharmboy2006 Well, SOMETHING is going to happen.

  • Edmund Lively
    Edmund Lively 5 months ago

    How to have both? Increase stability by outlawing fractional reserve banking but increase employment by changing taxation from production to real property. from capital gains, corporation tax and payroll tax to land tax. Use full reserve banking and real property tax

  • Tampablues
    Tampablues 6 months ago

    Call for a huge crash and you are bound to be right every 10-20 years.

  • Hyman Sahak
    Hyman Sahak 6 months ago

    A smart man but logic never applies to irrational markets. That’s why he is wrong most of the time.

    STOCK GORILLA 6 months ago

    Yesterday I heard $600bil unrealised debt and today its $1.8tril...do these people just pick the highest number just in case they might hit the jackpot 😂

    • AdamESD
      AdamESD 6 months ago +2

      I think the $600 billion is the banks’ collective unrealized loss on the bonds they hold. Plus another $1.2 trillion unrealized loss on loans they’ve given (because people and companies won’t be able to roll their debt forward due to the rise in interest rates), for a total of $1.8 trillion.

      STOCK GORILLA 6 months ago +2

      @AdamESD thank you for informing me 👍

    • AdamESD
      AdamESD 6 months ago +1

      @STOCK GORILLA You are welcome 🙏

  • Reality
    Reality 6 months ago +1

    The beautiful backdrop softens the dire message of a tsunami of megathreats 😂 😂

    • Mike K.
      Mike K. 5 months ago

      You don't say!

  • ID10T
    ID10T 6 months ago +4

    I think those are the most pictured buildings on Lake Como behind his right shoulder.

  • Oscar Cuzzani
    Oscar Cuzzani 6 months ago +3

    We need a young new government in this country. Fire the gerontocracy!

    • skeptick
      skeptick 6 months ago

      Yeah meet the new boss, same as the old boss !

    • Oscar Cuzzani
      Oscar Cuzzani 6 months ago

      @skeptick Who? Ron? 😂

  • Path Flight
    Path Flight 6 months ago +2

    Made an entire career by forecasting doom

    • sirus312
      sirus312 6 months ago

      doom sells.

    • 22robr
      22robr 6 months ago

      reality does not sound good to some people; they do not want to hear it. For these people, listening to lies about how good and nice things are in the financial world is what they want to hear.

  • David Crabtree
    David Crabtree 6 months ago

    If we had supply side, supply chain growth, increased competition in our tighter markets…e could have growth and reduction of inflation
    The Fd up part no one is talking about that!
    We only talk about raising rates and how bad the impact will be and already proving to be
    Sad we don’t have better leadership

  • Gordon McDonald
    Gordon McDonald 6 months ago +1

    Sell your stocks and buy a property in this beautiful location on Lake Como in Italy. All banks are in danger of runs so at least in property, you own it and control it. Just don’t put your money in any banks at the moment, unless it is below the deposit guarantee sum.

  • Andrian
    Andrian Month ago

    I didn't become financially independent until I was in my mid 40s, in addition to owning a second house making money on a monthly basis through passive income, and I've also met some of my goals. I really hope this motivates someone to know that it doesn't matter if you don't have any of these things yet; no matter your age, you can start today. Investing can help you change your future! By participating in the financial market, I took a significant decision.

  • fastrelief
    fastrelief 6 months ago +28

    This Roubinhi guy is predicting crashes every day for 15 years. Like Grantham. Even broken clocks are right twice a day

    • LeggoCrewTV
      LeggoCrewTV 6 months ago +1

      Roubi is a gloomer but always handy to have on the team!

    • David K
      David K 6 months ago +1

      If I had listened to this guy, I would not have reaped the benefits of the stock boom in the last decade.

    • LeggoCrewTV
      LeggoCrewTV 6 months ago +3

      @David K You need bears to have a clear head, last year is living proof

    • David K
      David K 6 months ago

      @LeggoCrewTV Totally agree. However, I don't believe in the views of a permabull or permabear. They don't seem to have a subjective view.

    • LeggoCrewTV
      LeggoCrewTV 6 months ago +3

      @David K True , but I always listen to both: this is a post covid post QE market. We are not out of the woods yet. And you can learn a lot from both angles.

  • p gress
    p gress 6 months ago +8

    Lake Como is a great place to sell a decent doomsday book.

    • sirus312
      sirus312 6 months ago


    • Roky Erickson rocks
      Roky Erickson rocks 6 months ago

      Okay, okay, but must he dress as a waiter at a tourist driven, greasy spoon ristorante?

  • Marco Rocci
    Marco Rocci 6 months ago +10

    --The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?????

    • @Buppasiri1
      @Buppasiri1 6 months ago +1

      Diverse your portfolio. Sell 20-30% and invest in something you really need for the future or in hard assets like gold or land.

  • mice
    mice 6 months ago

    Stop blaming the workers and work at home. Nouriel correctly redirects this to bigger infrastructure issues caused by businesses and the politicians they own and where they are heading. Classic Nouriel mic drop.

  • Peter Denham
    Peter Denham 6 months ago +2

    Great Channel…IMO there must be a smart way to motivate sellers to sell harder & faster to get back to 3300 or less on the S&P, better if we can get back to 2019 highs again.

  • Bobby Bagga
    Bobby Bagga 6 months ago +3

    High rates are unsustainable, due to colossal Debt!! Get ready to low interest rates in the coming months and for printing! Before something systemic needs to fail.

  • Lucas Balcázar
    Lucas Balcázar 5 months ago

    Dr.Doom ever makes money? All days the same chat, yet never happens.

  • saurabh B
    saurabh B 6 months ago +3

    Nouriel flagging a crash for the past 12 years!

  • Joyce Koch
    Joyce Koch 6 months ago

    With all this bad news, higher unemployment, and economic distress
    LaDonna is sure to vote for Biden in 2024.

  • Timx
    Timx 6 months ago

    Well he was right once in the last 20 years of predicting doom. A broken clock has been twice as accurate at predictions.

  • Karam SULAIMAN
    Karam SULAIMAN 6 months ago +3

    Boom!!! That ending!!!

  • EfaZen
    EfaZen 6 months ago +5


    • Vlad Bondarenko
      Vlad Bondarenko 6 months ago

      Idk how r u listening, but check inflation first. And you can check some leading indicators in some parts of CPI.
      This time is really (!) different purely coz of high sticky Core CPI.

  • Maximilien J
    Maximilien J 6 months ago +1

    How much money would you made if you took the opposite trade of this guy over the years ?

  • Sanae Fes
    Sanae Fes 4 months ago

    Investment in stocks is a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in stocks, it's worth it!

    • Laila Alfaddil
      Laila Alfaddil 4 months ago

      That's great! may I ask who's your portfolio manager?

    • Fred Williams
      Fred Williams 4 months ago

      I've been investing with ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER's guidance for a few years and I couldn't be happier. Her company has given me the best ROI while preserving my capital and has the most thorough investment guidance out there. It also never burns my money with speculation or poor philosophies of risk management.

    • Sanae Fes
      Sanae Fes 4 months ago

      *ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.

    • Laila Alfaddil
      Laila Alfaddil 4 months ago

      Wow! I just looked up this person out of curiosity and I'm super impressed with her qualifications. Thanks for sharing.

  • Patrick Oc
    Patrick Oc 6 months ago +1

    It's elementary my dear Watson

  • Leszek Ła
    Leszek Ła 6 months ago

    Who insured them and what is their loss?

    • Brad
      Brad 6 months ago

      It isn't about insurance. Banks can't get insurance except through the FDIC - and that is for depositors. You need a more specific question.

    • Henry K
      Henry K 6 months ago

      Funny question

  • Ken Anderson
    Ken Anderson 6 months ago

    There is still a Black Swann hovering over this economy, that will make the beginning of this liqudity crisis, look like grade school recess time.

    • WOLF & BEAR
      WOLF & BEAR 6 months ago

      Can you give lotto numbers too?

  • Anthony
    Anthony 6 months ago

    Gee I wonder if he gets big risk consultant fees

  • JP Treez
    JP Treez 6 months ago

    employers don't have to pay as much if more people work from home because they wouldn't have gas expenditures and it adds more to an ESG compliance... lol but less dependence on fossil fuel the better and also robotics can be used for many jobs and natural recharging with better stronger long lasting batteries ... I think it's time, that jobs do not interfere with innovation because of jobs sake and see a boom in robotic technology...

    • Hyperpandas
      Hyperpandas 6 months ago

      You presume employers should capture the cost savings from employees not having to go into work, but that's not actually how wages work. Regardless, employers can save money by not having to maintain workspace for all of its employees.

    • JP Treez
      JP Treez 6 months ago

      @Hyperpandas That was just hyperbole, but saving costs for rent or buying office furniture or whatever you want to fill in the blank... but your absolutely correct!

  • S. D. Crockett
    S. D. Crockett 6 months ago

    People are still working while they work at home :) Being in building a or b doesn’t affect productivity.

  • John Paul
    John Paul 5 months ago

    No matter what happens in the world, the fact of the matter is that countries will always want our dollar because they love our country and the quality of life we share with others around the world.. Money can't buy imagination! We came up with the internet, we came up with the fax machine! We came up with the best ideas in cars that people can afford to buy, fashion and designs in homes, decor and everything you can think of!.. We have the best minds in the world and all those who are ditching the petro-dollar can say what they want but they will always envy the United States and I am not bragging about that because I am a Christian, we do not support the idea of creating envy but we do lead by example of helping those in need when disaster strikes and you don't bite the hand that feeds you so I would not worry too much about our dollar going downhill, however I cant emphasize enough the importance of KEEPING our USA paper dollar because George Washington would be greatly upset if we stopped providing that moral support that our dollar provides to those who value our values!. Thank-you.

  • Brazos River
    Brazos River 6 months ago

    DEI is crushing productivity.

  • GoFucY0rSelf
    GoFucY0rSelf 6 months ago

    WRONG, bank managers knew EXACTLY what they were doing. Greed is s funny thing, it makes people not care about the risks being taken. Especially when your risking everyone else’s money. JFC, it’s not that hard to figure out.

  • Bernard Fropper
    Bernard Fropper 4 months ago

    Nice content