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Why China's population is shrinking
- Published on Mar 26, 2023 veröffentlicht
- And why that’s a big deal.
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For the first time in six decades, China’s population is shrinking, and it’s predicted it could create a demographic crisis. That’s because China isn’t just shrinking, it’s also aging. And the majority of Chinese couples are not considering having more than one child. Because of this, China is predicted to lose nearly 50 percent of its population by 2100.
China’s population decline can be traced back to the restrictive family-planning policies launched in the 1970s and an impressive economic boom fueled by China’s huge labor force.
China’s modernization brought rapid urbanization, rising income levels, and better education to large parts of China. Combined, these policies and growth have given China one of the lowest birth rates in the world.
Today, China is trying to reverse its population decline. Not just because an aging population is hard to sustain economically, but because China’s impressive economic growth, until now, has relied on its people. As China’s population challenges deepen over time, it might have to rethink how to grow its economy and care for its citizens.
You can explore China’s birth and death rate data via the United Nations Population portal, here:
As well as the country’s total population and predictions here:
Here are some key facts about China’s declining population from Pew Research:
You can read some surprising details about China’s family planning policies - for example, the One-Child Policy was actually less impactful than the Later, Longer, Fewer campaign - here: scholar.harvard.edu/files/mar...
Here’s an overview of China’s economic development from the World Bank:
And a report on China’s income gap:
For an in-depth look at the cruelty and human cost of China’s One-Child policy, I recommend the documentary One Child Nation by Nanfu Wang:
You can explore population pyramids from across the world on the US Census Bureau’s website:
Finally, our expert, Professor Wang Feng, believes China’s population growth can be framed in a positive light. To understand how, read this piece he wrote for the New York Times:
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Comments • 3 782
It very funny to me, as someone who grew up in the 2000s and 2010s, how I kept hearing about overpopulation and how that was the world's biggest problem. But today, shrinking populations is all I hear about.
Overpopulation IS by far the world's biggest problem. There are several nations that have taken China and India's place, you just have to read more.
We have not remotely reached carrying capacity. Nature will let us know if we do just like any other species. Right now, we throw away food to keep prices profitable 😃😪
Overpopulation isn't a real fear, however housing might be a problem in densely populated cities.
@Aeon Zero Umm what nation?
They didn't even touch upon the fact that the "One-Child Policy" led to a scarcity of females, because every family wanted a little boy that would support them in their decrepitude. That puts a *lot* of pressure on a small number of women.
A country full of disenfranchised men- what could go wrong?
I was also thinking this, pretty glaring oversight
I wonder if women there are constantly nagging about "I am single because there is no good man available, all the good ones are already taken" 😒
@Daniel no, coupled with the 4-2-1 issue and general Chinese culture, it’s the men complaining. There’s a big-money industry over there for trying to hook up bachelors with a woman.
As a Chinese living in America, I asked some of my Chinese friends living in both China and abroad about their views on the population issue. Most of them don’t even care and a few of them even feel relieved because they’re tired of overcrowded cities in China 😂
It's very much an issue that differs in perspective depending if you look at it from an individual vs government/economy level. That's why current policies have been ineffective....
its very much a nationalistic issue like many others and not an individual one if you are alive today it will really only affect people significantly at least 50 years from now
Let's see what they think in a few years as the population ages.
@Wilmer Henao 🇺🇸 is fasts ageing society
As a Chinese myself, my answer is that the generations under the one-child policy, like me, are very self-centered, we no longer take having children as the task we have to do for our family, we think twice before deciding to have children. We explore our own lives more before we decide to bring more lives to this planet.
I find the opposite to be true actually 😂 a lot of parents manage their own family lives very poorly (and by extension treat their children poorly). I mean look at the amount of pressure they put on their children to succeed and fail to teach them worthwhile life skills, or failure to properly handle domestic conflict/abuse situations (a lot of my friends don’t remember their parents loving each other at all, just a lot of bickering or the other extreme case zero communication). I mean how do they see any good in starting families when you grow up in an environment where all this misanthropic behaviour is deemed normal 😅
pardon me for asking, but did you happen to have a sibling that got taken away because of the one-child policy?
@FanofRPGalore But in some cases, they also wish to have their own family and children to cure their bad experiences
@Al Ray Lazado No, because my parents are all college graduates, they don't want this either, and another reason is that their wish to have more children is defeated by the awareness of the consequence of violating this policy, but in the rural area what you said is very common.
@ZenLeads赞灵子 it's sad that the one-child policy was withdrawn a little too late. but if it meant one baby not being aborted, then it's better to be late than never. hopefully your gov't can come up with a plan to mitigate the effects of your shrinking population. the Philippines isn't actually far behind since we've just hit below the replacement level.
It would be interesting to see the relationship between population pyramids and immigration policies and economic longevity.
Would love to see it in case of canada which had almost all its population growth due to immigration the previous year
Yep, Canada’s worker shortage plus low birth rate means bipartisan support for immigration. Merkel knew it too but it made her very unpopular.
The thing about this is that it's very hard to compare countries immigration policies. If you bring in 10 million uneducated older people to a country of 1 million, there will be very bad effects. Bring 2 million highly educated young people from China to say Japan and you'll see a lot of benefits. It matters a lot on which scale the immigration is taking place, who is coming(young vs old, educated vs non-educated, cultural similarities etc) and how the country handles immigrations. For example immigration to Sweden is expected to double the cost of pensions instead of, as the politicans used to promise, save our pension system.
Germany has the lowest birth rate in the world except Monaco (most who move there are beyond child bearing age) and they need 500 000 immigrants per year to maintain the size of their economy. They get twice as many making Germany the second most popular destination only fractionally behind the USA. Half of immigrants to Germany are refugees.
While "one child policy" has big problems, it's important to note that other developed asian country like japan and korea suffer the same problem without such policy, people simply don't want to give birth.
Or raise children
Or they do, but can not afford the cost. Caring for children is so expensive now. Even using free public schooling, the costs are very high. And if one of your children has medical needs that inflate those costs, then a second or third child becomes even less likely.
Yup. I’d love to have three kids but can’t even afford one.
@Railstar1976 no my good friend there women in Africa raising six kids with a fraction of the money isn't even a factor.
In fact it seems to have an inverse relationship the issue is decadence.
Atheists and secularism kills birth rates that the problem.
People need meaning to want to have kids, only the religious are having kids in the first world.
I like how the government saw population policy like a switch which can turn on and off any moment
Average day for a Stellaris player.
as a chinese citizen, I can tell u that many of our policy can be turn on and off within a day, not just the population related one. (I think a lot of westerner heard about the mess that is our covid quarantine policy by now?)
So yeah our gov are totally playing Stellaris everydays.
As governments should to prevent over or under population. You must be new to Earth.
The living pressure are too high in China. Low salary, high house price, high goods prices, low social security and welfares; so people don't want to give birth any-more. Also, educational level has been raised in comparative to years ago. Higher educational people are more concerned with offspring's quality over quantity.
they say it in everywhere, i don't think it is about salary. because salary was more way lower in the past.
@El Paso it's complicated
@El Paso Before 1980s, the major economy comes from agriculture. More children means more labours. It costs very low in education. But now, the major economy is manufacture. It needs higher education. It costs much more than agricultural society.
oh, and the same in terrorussia!
@El Paso It's the picture as a whole. Salary was lower but cost of living was even lower in real terms, and welfare more generous
As a Chinese, I have to say most businesses in China are following a principle of "If you don't do something, someone else will do it", because there are too many people, and that is why most Chinese people are living under pressure from many aspects
Can understand as an Indian.
I really want that population in India starts decreasing
we want many policies to decrease it . i'm fed up of this population
to get a good college i need to compete against 2 Million students where colleges have only 30000 seats
@jgbhacdsbjgfa hsgdghdvbsf I think with time India too will face the same problem. More population led to more competition, inflation, people studying till mid 20s and working harder than their parents to reach decent financial stability where they can start thinking of having babies. And it’s hard to find couple willing to have more than one child because of high cost of living.
In short, longer education, late marrying age, less children and the cycle repeats. Our population too will shrink, maybe not as drastically as china’s but it will.
One of the contributing aspect of China's population decline is the 996 work ethic, 12 hours work day (9AM-9PM) for 6 days, prevalent on many technology based companies. How does a person care for somebody else with that work schedule? Throwing money and maternity leave is like throwing salt into a rolling forest fire. It does nothing and add up to nothing. Here's hoping for the best for Chinese citizens.
In fact, few people work this hard, and the number of such people is extremely small, with salaries ranging from 30000 to 50000
@Frank Fleming I'm living in china rn for 11 years, let me tell you, the number of people working with this schedule is much more than you think. Also, their salaries tend to be really low, basically take off a zero for the numbers you listed
@zzfunny soul sb😅
@Chykiora yes.i'm chinese,many chinese work 26-28 one month,12hours a day,like waitor,factory worker.
“If having children doesn’t make my life better, what is the point having it?” If the government can’t answer this pressing question, I think it would be better off for youth to have no children.
Yes that's better
Exactly, why should we bring new people here to bear the burden of our failing economy and climate change? Let's focus on making life better for already existing life.
You can have 1 kid without popping out 10
As a Chinese born in 1990, I was the first generation who born under the "one child policy". Back then most people like my parents worked at government owned company, so no one would break the policy because it could make them lose their job. All my friends are single child, and I was thought how it should be😂 I still remembered 6 years ago the government opened up 2 child if both parents are single child. But in no time, today, they told you to have as many child as you want LOL
@LONG_LIVE_RIGHT_WING The one child policy wasn't good. It would be better to try other solutions. Maybe free sterilization, free abortions, education on how to prevent pregnancies, free or cheap birth control, and education on when it is a good time to have children. I realize that those things are expensive though.
The first generation of "one child policy" started in late 1970s. I am also Chinese born in 1990. We are the middle generation of this policy.
I'm 23-year old living in China. I asked some of my friends of the same age, almost no one plans to have children in the future.
With a very tiring own life, who has the extra energy to take care of children？
How about you? Do you plan for kids of your own?
No. Time, money, and life style change after marriage, definitely Dont wanna kids, but may be change my mind in the future.
The more important question, how do you have access to the internet that access youtube?
@Ahmad Halabiah he's him
@Ahmad Halabiah VPN
Fun Fact I have from the fun fact guy: Even if you subtract 1 billion people from China and India each they still would be the largest and second largest countries by population size.
makes you wonder what it would have been like if britian balkanized india before leaving
Which is disturbing... shame on them.
@Yautja Prime You are in no position to shame them so get down from the high horse.
@Yautja Prime their land is very fertile so they can bear those populations, meanwhile middle eastern and African countries have very little arable land with no water, low literacy rates with no women rights still their population growth rate is unsustainable
It's the same reason why people are not having children in America and Europe. Most people who are at the age to have children are not being paid enough to cover the costs of doing a decent job of raising children. They are also overworked and exhausted and lack the time and energy needed to meet someone and have children.
In America and China there are also weak protections for families such as insufficient maternity and paternity leave. Babies need a lot of attention and employers don't want employees to be distracted from working for the company's profits by things like children.
You're saying higher wages would solve this, allow one parent to work and the other parent to stay home... I wonder if having less people flooding the workforce would help? Hmmmm.......
@** No, it is completely affordable for people to work less hours, hire more people to make up for it, and pay more. The problem comes from all of the productivity gains of the last several decades only increasing the wealth of a few very rich people.
Your ideas will lead to those same few rich takers continuing to take all of the wealth for themselves.
@asdfghjkl a lot of companies that have done this. Increase the work force size, decrease the time spent working also benefit from the fact that their entire workforce is no longer working "full time" and therefore the company saves money not having to put into health insurance.
Another factor is how people's view on 'profits' from having children changed. In a more traditional agrarian society, every population tends to add more productivity and security to the family, with small expenses, and this is usually directly tied to the growth and survival of the house.
Nowadays the standard expense of raising a child to a "socially acceptable" state is much, much higher than a unskilled farmer-like type person, you need proper 9-12 years education, good initiative and habit training, many health issues to be engaged, all of these could be completely negated in old society but they are mandatory now. Having more children without immense wealth really only increases the burden to the family, which is the key reason why people in more developed country just have lower desire to have child.
@asdfghjkl thankfully 4 day work weeks have gotten a lot of traction this past year or two
my heart always broke for the children that grew up not only with no siblings, but no cousins either. No cousins, no aunts or uncles. Just you, your parents, your grandparents. It seems simple enough when you are an adult, but a child should have relatives their own age too. Sure you can have friends. But no cousins? no aunts or uncles, bc the one child policy also affected your own parents generation? man, to me that is still such a sad thing.
That is not even the case
they can have cousins though
@pp no if their mothers and fathers does not have siblings it is not
No way I would like that
Also in china and many asian countries you don't marry your spouse, you marry their family. It's just way too burdensome especially when you're already struggling in life
There were some benefits of such social arrangements, joint families were more better way of socialising children. Assured safety net. But I guess that’s changing now
you have to provide for all that people and your furure children.🥶
It is same here in India. I think it happens all over Asia..
The idea of 2 families uniting through 2 people has multiple benefits. As the children grow up in joint families, there are multiple members to care for the young and old, thereby negating the need for expensive toddler-care and elder-care services. looking after the domestic aspects of cooking, cleaning, washing for the joint-family are done by multiple wives, cousins and the mother, which reduces the burden on any one woman at any given time. similarly, farming and/or business duties for the joint-family is handled by the brothers, cousins, nephews etc, reducing the load on any one man. it also makes the family stronger against external threats (less important these days with legal and police services).
I honestly feel some sort of Schadenfreude when I watch such reports. A couple previous generations (not everyone but many) enjoyed the advantages of economic boom and yet neglected and mistreated us when we were kids on family level, offered us such fantastic opportunities as free internships or ridiculously low paying entry level jobs, no access to housing, refused to vaccine after we offered solidarity losing a couple years of our youth during the pandemic, and eventually led the world to the brink of WWIII on global level. Now they are whining why young people don’t want to reproduce these days and wondering where their retirement support should come from. Not only in China, many countries worldwide. You know what? You made your bed, enjoy lying in it.
Bruh when you get home at 8 or 9 after work and knowing you need to get back to work at 8 or 9 in the morning next day, making a baby feels like too much work, needless to say raising a baby.
can't agree u more!
@George Campbell Are you Syed or non-Syed.
@George Campbell Yeah, like you said: at the end of a chain, let it be one for real then. No big deal
When procreation is based solely on labor productivity to support inequity within social mobility, while restricting access to basic resources, that are available to everyone, you get these particular issues that are more than avoidable, unnecessary and inhumane
That's the problem with wage labor. Another is the lack of so-called women's fund or whatever the best name is. With that fund, any woman who wants to have child just need to take the cash. Sure, child support already exists. But it's nowhere close to this concept
For god's sake I'm not trying to read a scientific paper
Throwing expensive words to look wise and smart doesn't make your argument better, it just makes it unreadable
Or maybe I'm replying to a bot and I'm the fool
@Zaydan Alfariz Yup...
I agree but that was one giant run on sentence. You are aware there are more punctuations than commas right?
The issue is that basic ressources are very scarces in China. They need to import a lot of food since a very small percentage of their lands is usable. At any moment China could go to another food crisis, so resolving the basic ressources issues, is harder then it look.
A longer maternity rate actually means more discrimination when women are finding jobs. So in order to counter them, women would not want to give up their job, but choose not to marry and give birth. So the Chinese are very against the extended maternity leave. Instead people are asking for same leave period for both parents to relief the pressure on women in workforce while also have enough time to care for the baby. But currently, this was not implemented.
Because they don’t want to lose the workforce of men, that’s why. so bear with the consequences
@Li Renxin what for? You must not have a mother. Poor you.
@Li Renxinyou probably one of the reasons why women choose to stay single
I am a Chinese, and there is no Lgdp or black people in China. The minority group that needs to be cared for is only women. In fact, Chinese women have a high status, while men have to work hard to get married. In China, without two houses and expensive, there is no love!
@woshisb there's always love. What you're talking about?
Made even worse by the fact that most families pursued a son over a daughter, leading to large disparities in populations of males vs females.
I'd like to know more about how the economic effects of a decreasing population could be mitigated, and what the positive aspects of a decreasing population could be too (e.g. more biodiversity, less crowds and pollution, less pressure on water resources, etc.)
Immigrant workers to provide elderly care. Japan doesn't want it.
Robotics, machines and AI.
Invest heavily in robotics and AI is the only thing I can think of that might help mitigate the issue
@Sandal_Thong Japan wants to remain ethnically homogeneous.
I wonder if this will be a problem here in the US as well, just on a smaller scale. Anecdotally, many people in my age group seem to be having fewer children than they might've wanted to, due to financial hardship. And we, too, have a large baby boom cohort that is quickly approaching a long retirement. The economic effects might not be as pronounced as in China since we're not as much a manufacturing powerhouse anymore, but it is still interesting to consider.
I think it's going to be a bit more complicated. Smart people will have less kids, and those who aren't qualified will have plenty of them.
So, on paper we won't see a population decline. But an increase in crime.
@Eks Bocks sure
It has been a problem in the US for a long time
Your population does not suffer from depopulation because of migration
Pretty much every developed country is underpopulated.
It’s not as much of a problem here and in other multicultural countries as it is in nation-states, since the former can use immigration to increase population without causing major issues, but still.
I saw an interesting idea which connected the aggressiveness of geopolitical strategy with population decline. Both Russia and China seem to be on a terminal path of population growth and this incentivizes riskier short term driven policies and behavior to remain super powers (Russia seems to have failed this already). The US has an extremely effective, long standing immigration policy/ethic which means it's dominant position remains unchallenged militarily, economically and in population growth/size.
One of the main issues with the Chinese government is its lack of flexibility in policy-making. While policies like the one-child policy and Covid restrictions may be initially necessary, the government should be quick to modify or repeal them when needed, instead of waiting until they cause irreparable harm. Moreover, the government's policies are often implemented with little regard for the people affected by them. For instance, during the Covid pandemic, Australia allowed people to walk their dogs in certain circumstances, while China enforced a strict lockdown that prohibited any outdoor activity. Furthermore, Chinese policies often lack necessary details and can be mercilessly enforced, as evidenced by the mandatory killing of pets suspected of carrying Covid.
I'm from China, and I've chosen to be the last generation of my family, thanks to China's unaffordably high housing price, various unstable policies, nowadays difficulty to find a sustainable job, and above all, lack of freedom and justice-- all by the autocratic gov't.
I live in America, and I remember growing up being told that there's too many people in the world, so I decided I wouldn't have any children. I wonder how many other people thought the same thing and came to the same conclusion...
I obviously always realised the One-Child policy would result in people only having one child, but I never made the connection that if it continues over a generation, like how it was enforced for nearly 40 years, people also will only ever have 1 grandchild too! Which is a real problem for a country like China that is cultural to care for your parents and grandparents in their elder-age.
They could have "4 grandparents: 3 grandchildren" policy. They just don't want to provide retirement benefits, and don't want immigrants from poorer countries providing elder care.
We keep hearing about Africa’s population growth and how the continent have the youngest populations on earth so it’d be interesting to see if you made those kind of graphs about African countries.
There's no mystery there. When there is food populations grow, when there is famine populations shrink.
they literally showed kenya first..
@Samson Soturian It's not that simple. You're ignoring industrialization and demographic changes, combined with decreased/increased birthrates.
@Ruocaled Nee which was cool to see so I want to see more African countries to kind of see where they’re at
@Joseph Russo yeah, foreign investment boosts productivity, and when African states genocide the foreigners they starve. Its happened so many times...
I think while China is easy to look at its population issues, its not unique to China. I believe many countries are going through this at different rates, meaning a lot of us should take a look at why that is, and what can or if anything needs to be done about it. As some ideas are presented here, again they aren't unique to China, they just're profound.
The problem is that other countries are considered high income countries. China fell in the middle income trap.
The One Child policy was actually not that impactful in the end. Compare it to Taiwan and you can see they are affected almost the same despite no policy. And Korea is the same with Japan doing a little better.
The two main factors are economic (via increasing wealth but also increasing costs and urbanisation) and education. Direct government policy is only third to these.
I think the point is the speed at which China reached this point WITHOUT becoming wealthy first. That is the impact the one child policy had. All the above have gotten to that point after or when they became rich (just as the Europeans did before them).
@riddler andsa I didn't say they became wealthy, just that wealth increased a lot. Urbanisation and education are perhaps the better way of stating it. A similar thing happened in the Soviet Union: urbanisation and education, without becoming first world wealthy but still much better off than they were earlier.
The speed is probably helped a lot by the huge famine that basically replaced 30 million adults and children with brand new babies (bringing forward a lot of births that then didn't happen later). The famine and one child policy probably had a similar magnitude of effect on decelerating births.
Not so, because China lied about its population growth too. State and city governments are allocated state resources based on population numbers, so everyone engages in double counting. Their census includes both migrant workers from the city, migrant workers in the city, people who have left China for good, and it is intentionally difficult to make a permanent change of address if you have moved elsewhere in China. This process is repeated at every level of government.
IDK how much of China's population simply doesn't exist, but there's a lot.
@Samson Soturian but Isn't the birth rate data in census lower than actual number if Chinese government overcount the population of adults？this dosnt make any sense
There is the psychological aspect as well. The population of the One Child era, wouldn't even want to have kids or may want to have only one because it's what they experienced and lived and now used to: conditioning. Every decision has consequences. I'm sure the over population was a serious problem for them then but maybe the plan should have been well thought out.
Will be interesting to see what measure, if any, humans take to address the unsustainable populations around the world.
This channel mastered narrating stories in a way that makes you feel you uncover the mystery yourself .... Thank you Johnny!
6:59 This reminded me of something. I remember watching a video about how WW2 still has devastating effects on the population of Russia, as all the people that didnt have children and died in the war left "echoes" that caused massive declines in births as every new generation came along in 20-year intervals after the war (e.g. it was seen in the 60s, 80's, and 2000's, and is going to be noticeable again this time.) This also applies to many European and Asian countries, China being one of them. About 14M were slaughtered by Japan during the war, and then think about how many descendants would be alive today were those people not dead.
Although this is not nearly as detrimental for China as the one-child policy, it's still some food for thought
You're a correct. Millions died under Japanese invasion, Civil War and Mao's famine.
Curious about Albania's situation tho. Not to mention that worst things to Albanians happened in Kosovo, not Albanian proper per se
@Józef Piłsudski oh yea i forgot ab the famine and the civil war, that was much worse 💀
@Józef Piłsudski The population of Ukraine also declined when Russia invaded.
It's almost like stress plays a factor in this.
it was no russia during WWII - it was a soviet union!
If reversing the one child policy in China didn't work, then banning abortion after 50 years in the US won't work. Government can't force people to raise children they can't afford or don't want as a result of economic and social pressures.
They're getting economic benefits for that.
In the US it's not about population, it's about the right becoming radicalised and letting religion dictate law. I'd be more worried about losing 50 years of social progress and culture.
@Aeon Zero how was it religion? Science says life begins at conception.
When you beat the nature so much, that you risk demography. This isn't unique to China. Albania, a very poor country, is at risk of demographic decline and possibly, economic struggle
Automation will be inevitable. But for countries like Albania, it's quite expensive. One of few ways is to introduce diasporas into the country, which the gov has been trying for years.
Automation is great if the benefits go to society at large and not the owners of capital. 100 years ago it was estimated that automation could decrease our work week to 16 hours, but all of the productivity gains in automation have gone to the capitalists and we are working more than ever.
@agentofashcroft Yeah. Even better, industrial machines should've given workers with much better condition during the 1st Industrial Revolution. But here we are
@agentofashcroft Of course the benefits of automation will fall to the hands of the people who own (and manufacture) it. The big multinational capital will benefit, and our nations and our people will not. I'm just here hoping for a total societal and economic collapse.
I used to be against Automation. Now I support it.
the oldest civilizations on earth are now experiencing problems when it comes to birth rate.. sigh, i'm still sad about the birth rate problem in japan, its just i never thought that both china and korea are experiencing the same thing too. i'm just kind of glad that our country (PH) is still doing well, we're not rich compared to other countries but maybe the fact that most of us still lives with our grandparents help the majority to appreciate the effort of the old to give a meaningful life that could also be taught to the younger and future generations.
1900s were unique, end of story
Actually, more birth rates like in the PH is not a good thing , especially when a lot of families struggle with their daily lives, I am just stating facts that a lot of family are still struggling with education, money , etc, instead of having more babies, why not try to flourish the already born babies, and give them the nicest lives possible
Ph is gonna experience this in a decade or two. The birth rate is already below replacement level at 1.9.
@Kayla Hedvika actually when it comes to education , there are public schools now that are accepting students for free, i even experienced the same thing from grade school to high school even in university, when it comes to money, those people who have low income, lets say they are part of the majority who were struggling to work day and night yet they're saving those money for the future generation, im not defending my fellow countrymen its just that we cant tell them to get good or get a job with a higher salary or enroll their children to private schools with better education (which is off cause public schools and private schools often have the same curriculum) or live in a big house instead of being a informal settler , if they're not capable to do those things, there are times when i sympathize with the elders who are still pushing carts in the streets, but once you find out that they're doing it to help their grandchildren ur just gonna think like ur not doing enough, like you'll be ashame to compare ur self with people like them who are still giving their best, while you who have almost everything are giving up because of something. the lack of education, money, good livelihood is kind of a deep topic to talk about but i know that majority of the filipinos out there are doing their best to survive, so with the higher birth rate, who knows maybe in the future, majority of the public school within and outside metro manila will implement free education.
@Reddit Stop for now i think we're okay, we didn't implement one child policy etc so i think its their choice, of course when you dont have stable income or if you don't have stable jobs, you'll think of how hard the situation will be if you start having kids now if you cant even support yourself, but like i said, we might not be a rich country but at least i think our situation is way more better than the past decades.
China has to make the transition towards a consumption based economy as its demographics do not lend itself to sustainably supporting a export driven manufacturing economy
It’s likely that in the short term countries like India may see more labor intensive manufacturing jobs but not because India will continue to grow but because it’s rate of population decrease will not be as rapid as chinas so there is a time limit to manufacturing in India as well.
In North America Border towns in northern Mexico and the southern United States will probably lead domestic manufacturing on the continent because of the respective population growth rates throughout that region and the regulatory advantage of being in the same economic zone. Mexico still has a lot of time to leverage a population based workforce dividend before its population will decrease. It is still developing and having children
I am an Indian. Our population is expected to grow for another 30 years before it stabilises. From the current population of approx. 1.4 B, it should reach somewhere around 1.7 B and then reduce to 1.5 B by turn of the century. We just hit the mark of 2.0 on the fertility rate as a nation. It would be great to observe and learn how all these countries like Japan, South Korea, almost all of Europe and now China deal with the dual problem of fewer children and ageing population. These are real problems and all these nations are going to struggle for a while. In my opinion, immigration from poorer nations may not be a long term solution unless the assimilation with the mainstream happens seamlessly. Especially in Europe, I see fractures developing everywhere.
By the time India’s population decreases, AI would get much more advanced. So India need not worry. Even for South Korea or Japan, their population would decrease but rise again in the future.
Have you learned to poo to the loo?
I think economic pressure is only viable for current state of industries, relying mostly on manual labor. By 2050 I doubt there will be as much necessity in human labor as it is right now. Not about GPT again, but I'm sure there's going to be a similar break-through of a multi-purpose tool, be it a robot, or new ways of producing goods.
As the standard of living rises things become increasingly more expensive and it’s not cheap to raise a child.
This is happening worldwide.
Previously all you had to worry about was that your children didnt starve, then kids had to be sent to school and couldnt help (at least as much) with supporting the family. Now you have to get tech and housing is much more expensive and it just spirals... People want their kids to be well educated but to do so you cant split your resources as thinly between several children. Everything is more expensive which makes it hard.
You would think because of the shrinking of birth rate it is easier to find a job, but instead it has never being more competitive to find a job in China.
well thats because you will only see these effects in the future it doesnt happen this quickly
That is because the current working population is still very very huge. What we are talking about here is the birth rates, babies who are yet to receive education.
I think the explanation I read somewhere was that college gaduate numbers are at an all time high, while at the same time job growth has barely keep up with ths growing college educated workforce so this counteract this population shrinkage issue.
They had to find jobs for an additional 100 million+ adults over the last 20 years as there wasn't zero or negative population growth even under "one-child policy." The Fed in America is raising interest rates which may cost 2 million jobs, and some say won't stop inflation due to scarcity of goods from COVID and bird flu. I can't imagine America trying to create 100 million new jobs!
Because we don't have the relation with the employer in charge of the recruitment. And maybe the market shrinks with the population in rural China. Urban China is always as popular as we can imagine.
That family structure is the scariest thing I’ve ever seen
Imagine generations of kids growing up with No siblings and No cousins
Correction: at 5:27, the preditiction for 2100 says -800,000, but the graph shows a decline of approximately -650,000,000, which is quite a bit larger. Maybe the text was originally supposed to say 800,000,000, which is approximately where the graph ends up at 2100?
Yes. It was meant to say China will have 800 million people by 2100 if trends continue.
The population graph and the prediction is off. All advanced economies has population declines and the ones in Europe are worse than China's.
Also, it mentions that China's GDP per capita is way lower than the advanced economies but by GDP at purchasing power parity, it is higher than all countries so this video is obviously trying to omit data points that conflicts with their negative narrative.
@RC Stat found the Chinese bot.
@RC Stat You have no idea what you're talking about. Chinese fertility rate is amongst the lowest in the World.
Only surpassed by Japan and Korea.
Also, even using GDP per capita(PPP), Chinese is still very low compared to developed nations.
Actually, Shanghai University themselves believe it could be as low as 600m by 2100 and 800m by 2050. Plenty of Chinese academics think Chinese numbers are overestimated. By the 2030's China is looking at economic decline and by the 2040's it is a collapse like the world has never seen in human history. Manufacturing 30% of the economy and declining fast. Property 30% of the economy that no-one wants to invest in and there aren't enough people to live in the apartments. There is an oversupply already of 70 million apartments! Put the two together with the demographics and you have armageddon.
Do you have a team of editors that do these videos? They’re total eye candy and always so well put together
3:32 that is actually pretty obvious since the fertility rate was 1 for every couple. It will go down by half for each generation... Which causes all those problems.
This may be an specific example with huge implications... But all over the globe, the trend is to have fewer than 2 people. Which will lead to a decrease in population which isn't bad in itself (it might be even good to have fewer people spending resources and all). But, depending on the rate, having na upsidedown age pyramis can cause drastic problems on government and population
As technology improves, having less population is actually a better scenario as per capita resources and productivity increases. It is a bad assumption to make that China can not de-associate population with economic growth, and as many developed countries have shown, advance economies at least by western standards have nothing to do with actual manufacturing or labor intensive markets, but just high tech or service oriented economy. Of course the China's population issue is raised as an international issue, because China produces the vast majority of cheap daily goods that sustains the advanced economies, and that no other country in sight has the level of general education and population that can replace China's production capacity, not even India (as its population is not educated enough).
The concentration of manufacturing in one country is not detrimental to other countries. The pandemic highlighted dependence/reliance of medical supplies on China, manufacturing delays, and supply chain issues. It can and will affect a nation's national security.
As a Korean this is pretty relatively optimistic.
We never had met the (painted) fertility rate expectations and the forecasts had been always wrong in a recent decade.
Now we are dropping about 0.1 per every year(!) and might see 0.6x on 2023. Can't wait to see the apocalypse.
we can feel it
as a chinese ,same feel
@arnold timIs this topic often discussed in china?
I grew up thinking China (and India) would continue to have exponential population growth. The fact that China is no longer meeting the replacement cycle illustrates the unintended consequences of bad policy. This is a real time case study in population control policy, and will be interesting to see when they can reverse the cycle -- and what we can all learn from it.
It'll never be reversed the reality is once you drop below replacement level you're done for.
Yeah in like 100 years maybe
@Jaws Except Albania for some reasons. I mean they have similar conditions to China, than to the rest of Europe
@Kcuf Hctib You are correct, because the elderly population suffers immediately after the consequences.
I kinda wanna know how China taught their elementary school students what siblings are while under the 1-child rule. Nobody would’ve been able to answer the teacher’s question “Who has brothers or sisters?”
5:27 Please correct. It is not a projected population decrease of 800,000 people, it is a projected population decrease of 600,000,000 MILLION people. It is going from 1.4 billion people to 0.8 billion people.
Projections are like buttholes. Everybody has one and they all stink.
they used US billion not UK billion, so technically they are correct
This "projection" is just so made up to give a starting point for this video. With lockdown ending, it may be more likely they have a baby boom, like after the famine, they cite. But this time without 6 kids. There seems to be an idea that if childhood mortality is high, then parents want a lot of kids to hedge their bets.
This video is very informative. Nobody talked about this issue in-depth like Vox did. Thank you!
Honestly lots of people have talked about it in-depth. This video just narrows it down to a nice under 10 minute video. This doesn't even fully discuss the issues involved...
I remember when I was 14 I asked my science teacher about overpopulation and he just said "no, that's not a real issue, the population will reach 10 billion at most and then start to plateau or go down, the earth's population will never be higher than it can support" and I felt dissonant for a second and then it was like "blam" and it was like this obvious reality became apparent to me.
I think it’s good because it will make people realize what problems need to be attended to. China being a hub of factories for several countries is also something that will be affected and business will have to maneuver around.
I could be wrong but I think because there were so many people in China they were bound to see a huge drop eventually. It seems to be common where something grows to a point it can no longer sustain itself so it implodes.
Thats not what new age capitalism has taught me! Infinite growth is definitely sustainable infinitely, yup
I also heard that the cities are now designed for the one child policy. It’s tricky to find a home if you have more than one kid for example.
true. the reousrces allocated to each home and the design of the apartments themselves are based on the assumption that there's only one child in a family; so if there's another one (second birth, not a twin), that child won't be getting a degree. the apartments are usually having 2-3 bedrooms only. the problem is, they knew the population will be shrinking, but they are still assuming there's going to be a large amount of new-born children, so many resources are vaccant
It’s better to not have the products than making people work like robots in such big factories without any humanness
Not an option for countries like Albania, which also faces similar issue. The good news is Albania has lots of diasporas to pull from
Big and important countries have to do it
ya let go USA train workers
That's where you could also bring up the topic of actual robots working in factories. Especially in this case too, since China is no stranger to it. Well, we just have to wait and see how things will go
"GDP per capita, the best indicator we have for standard of living". That's just not true at all. Human Development Index (especially the inequality adjusted one) is a much better indicator for standard of living.
You are correct that hdi is better but gdp per capita is a component in HDI 😅
Looking at HDI; Ukraine, Iran, and Belarus, for a few examples, are ranked higher than China
HDI enlarged the impact of the lowest score. for China, that's education. there are many problems in China, from environemental issues to income inequality, but education is the worst one. i have to say, this is a illustration of having a large population without sufficient resources to improve the education level. otherwise, china should ranked at a higher level, but not dramastically far from where it is now
Interestingly even India's birth rate is below replacement level (2.0) without any policy to limit child birth and as the cost to raise a child increases it will come down even more.
Well, no policy *now* .
Children 👶 raised in low children families tend to have fewer children 👶 themselves.
Though probably not the biggest reason.
Well, that's one of the positive sides of inflation. It's a feedback loop thats keep out the system going out of whack.
Yea it's cuz youth isn't breeding like cockroaches our young ppl have internet and education they know and understand now that having a child is very big responsibility unlike old generation
it's 2.1 what's your source
Too much stress in this world. People don’t feel like they can have a kid nowadays. It’s painful.
As I often say in these types of videos: When will it stabilise? This is actually what I'd argue is the greatest unknown in modern sociology. No country has managed to raise it's fertility rate above replacement after it has gone under. We don't have a sociological theory for how or why people would start to have medium-to-large families again (realistically, maintaining a fertility rate of 2.1 means that 4 or 5 children families have to be at least somewhat common).
Personally, I'm sceptical government interventions or changing economic conditions would be enough - they might help raise the rate of decline from 'catastrophic' to 'a bit painful' (e.g. going from 1.3 children per woman to 1.7) but I honestly don't see how or why large numbers of people would go back to large families. People (and especially women) just don't want them.
We don't need to worry for awhile. Anyway, there are women who enjoy raising children, including teachers who help raise other women's children. So that if we ever seriously drop world population without catastrophe, these are the women who will make up the difference.
As a Vietnamese, I think my country has the same problem. In the past, we just gave birth. But now, when we have a baby, we need to make sure a lot of things like: House, Education, Health Care etc.
the effects of this will be felt trough the whole world, either economically or enviromentally
Unless businesses around the world change to other developing countries. Back in the 60s, at least in the West, there wasn't a big reliance on Chinese imports until Nixon met with the Chinese president at the time to open trade between the United States and China.
or they'll find a new sweatshop
@Kenna Rajora However, they will have fewer consumers and it will be a lot more difficult to make a profit.
China’s manufacturing growth was fuelled from the movement of people from rural to urban areas. In 1990, 80% were rural and 20% urban. In 2022, 40% is rural and 60% is urban. BUT the rural migration will continue with about 15%;-20% still to move ie between 200-280 million people expected to move to urban areas over the next few decades. In addition, since 2014, over 50% of the total worlds installation of industrial robotics were installed in to China’s factories.
Chinese cities have a birthrate of 0.7. Increasing urbanisation will make the problems more permanent and worse
If there's one thing history has taught us, is that more people does not always mean a better world (i.e. poverty, inequality, pandemic, war). But the sustainable solution has and always been less is more, and more almost always means less in the long run.
In the context of China, it just means doubling down on automation, infrastructural and regime change to find a sustainable solution. Not as the video suggests, having more people.
I would rather be childfree and retire by forty, spend the rest of my life watching Netflix and chilling out, than have a couple of kids and slog till sixty to pay their expenses - schooling, healthcare, higher education, rent, food, entertainment.
This is a phenomenon that's observed in a number of countries around the world. For example, Germany and Japan both also have birth rates well below replacement and also have an inverted population pyramid.
And Germany like other European countries takes lot of immigrants, but Japan doesn't. Now even Italy started to give special work visa to people all over the world.
Germany and Japan have higher GDP per capita.
@Titanium Rain Well, consider Thailand and Albania, both with lower GDP per capita and also similarly low birth rates. It'a a fairly common phenomenon. The global birth rate has been dropping steadily since the mid 1960's.
@Titanium Rain I don't know what this has to do with my original point that the phenomenon is a global one
China is experiencing this due to the one child policy, of course after the 2015, the policy ended and still those are about to kick the bucket yearly. Also, can already see the future's tendance, population will be plummeting in long term coz it depends heavily how the teens see the future but not heavily on the policy enacted.
also China is experiencing middle-income trap, expensive enough of being not competitive of those labor-intensive goods but not good enough in higher value-added activities because productivity is too low.
Also industrialization and automation makes having kids an economic disadvantage because there is less and less work they can do to make up for their costs and there needs to be more resources poured into them like education since automation replaces low skill jobs with higher skilled jobs.
"You should receive more education. I won't deny the various challenges China faces, but compared to the semiconductor industry and the threats posed by the external environment, these are insignificant, so you're just saying some nonsense.".
The one child policy was important, but it's not the only factor. China industrialised very rapidly in the 90s and 2000s, and industrialisation comes with known demographic effects. There is this slightly annoying habit of people looking at individual countries and saying 'Look it's population is declining because of X!', when the bigger picture is that the demographic transition is happening _everywhere_ . Country-specific factors may accelerate or decrease the rate and magnitude of the transition, but they do not explain the bulk of it.
The issue is their society grew up with the policy and they are used to it also it didn't help that most families wanted a boy for their only child meaning the next generation will be significantly cut down
Like any progressive countries on Asia. China’s is starting to be like how Japan is.
I came from Philippines and I also see some drastic changes when it comes to family planning this past 10 years.
Our birth rate law while our GDP per capita is still much lower than developed countries
As an Indian myself i'm glad our fertility rate dropped naturally thanks to the education . As of 2023 India's fertility rate is 2 (below replacement level of 2.1) . Its general trends around the world modern generation don't wanna get married even if they do they don't wanna have kids . Some think about adopting while some go for fewer kids 2-3 . Everything is getting so much expensive then their is climate catastrophe , recession not to forget waaarrrsss and upcoming ww3 . Who would wanna brought their kids in this broken world ? .
It's not just China, the birthrate is down in many other countries as well along with the rate of marriage. In America the cost to raise a child is around $17,000 USD per child. Just over $300k by the time they turn 18-years old. Then there's college. Lots of people are taking a pass on procreation. The costs of living doesn't give you a break like it used too.
Having kids is a massive responsibility in today society. You have to raise the kid the right way, with so many distraction. While still having works, social life. It's not about choice . You need to maintain the OTHER role to be able to raise you kids and keep survival.
The problem is not shrinking population but unhealthy population structure.. Too many people mean too much labor supply which means BAD working conditions. The best solution in my opinon can only be imigration. It can better the population structure while having a shringking population.
How immigration can make population structure better?
@Rashedul Kabir His comment's writing is a bit twisted, but I think he meant to say that, since the population is already on decline and it will be for the next few decades even if the Chinese start breeding like rabbits right now, immigration is the only solution to keep the population pyramid and generational replacent stable.
Immigration is the worse thing you can do to a nation, the people that are coming would wanna implement their laws from the countries they came from and if they become a majority they might even try to genocide the original natives, that is happening in europe right now and tensions are rising
@Polipod That's how America solves its declining population. Immigration
It will entirerly depend on how the immigration is handled and who is coming. Sweden is a having a lot of issues due to its high immigration, pension costs are expected to double in a few years due to having to pay older immigrants retirements too.
I think the one child policy is clearly wrong, but the drastic drop of births in 2022 is due to covid restrictions, which has made the existing situation worse, but I expect a rebound of births in the coming years. But probably it will not be sufficient to reach the replacement rate of 2.1
They need negative population growth or zero population growth at the most, to get to a sustainable economy. They had to find 100 million+ jobs over 20 years due to positive population growth, even under the "one-child policy." If America had to do that, we'd be in a permanent recession/depression.
Thanks for such a balanced and insightful video. This is an interesting topic.
Shrinking populations are only an issue if the only thing you care about is consistent GDP growth. GDP growth doesn't mean better quality of life, especially since all the money is just (and exponentially so) concentrated in the hands of the few, while billions of people are actually getting poorer that previous generations. China's (and the world's) population shrinkage is actually a GOOD thing!
i dont get ur thoughts
As someone who has ties back in China but also works in the US, I can tell you for sure....the work environment is so hostile to the points if i were to list some of the things they do to hire/fire an employee, it would be straight up illegal in the US or EU.
Like they ask you whether you plan to have a child or not at the a job interview...and the long long work hours without overtime pay....you name it. Gosh im grateful.
I wish everyone could see this comment. Most Americans hate our country and think every country in the world is better
because the population momentum is still there. there's still a large number of workers waiting to be employed. when the population decreases for another decade or so, these companies will have to do something to improve the working environment, as they won't have anyone to hire no more. such problem exists in schools as well. only until not long ago, teachers would literally beat the "below-average" students, as there were too much students for one teacher to handle that teachers didn't want to bother. recently, as the number of new students declining, each student gets more attention and care
Pretty bog standard story: too expensive to have kids, not enough social support (such as family members located in the same city to help provide support for minimal cost), houses not being conducive to large families, apartment living making people uncomfortable having kids, incomes + subsidies still not allowing families to reach break-even, skyrocketing education costs, increased costs of kids (too much expectation to give kids access to a laptop and a phone), etc. etc.
People won't be having more kids in any country until it's EASY in all variables: parents time, social support network, financial, housing, and access to services (education, etc.).
GDP is perhaps the worst way to measure standard of living.
the video said GDP per capita
It means the one child policy works. Congratulations 🎉
A recipe for a dying country
Well it has negative impact ,Most of their population is now aging and more men than women so in future population will decrease again and lot older and less workforce , An economic disaster is waiting
@DaysPass We are overpopulating the earth, i's good that we are decreasing in population. The earth couldn't sustain too many people.
@mzf 11125 We aren't even close to overpopulation. There is enough food and water for everyone if some countries didn't hoard wealth and have huge amounts of wasted resources. Unless we truly united as a species and started working together we simply cannot try and control or properly benefit from shifts in population. Since it effects the specific country where it happens first and the world as a whole far second.
This was very informative. Thank you for your work!
Accurate numbers, realistic ones will be very difficult to attain but the 'Shanghai Data Leak' is, so far, the best source for realistic estimates which might have us (here in mainland China) somewhere around 990 million. 2018 was the first 'official numbers' (don't confuse that with real numbers) of Guangxi province having the first ever negative growth. More deaths than births. Having been in China since 2009 I wasn't surprised because this squared with what we see and live in and experience daily over the years. Just hours ago we visited a shopping center we first visited a decade ago, had routinely for years but haven't been to in around 3 years. It's remarkable how you notice what 'is not there' as much. It used to be full of old grandmothers and now there are very few. There are surprisingly few children for ever adult. Most adults were 35+. There are less people and less young teen/college age people. In a way, we thought it was so nice. No cranky villager oldies and no screeching kids or obnoxious teens but a world of 40-50 year old people with it all to ourselves. Of course, the thing is, in about 25 years WE will disappear. There may be a huge shopping center with a sparse number of 35 year olds wandering around and who will all the stores be for? I'm still not sure if this is entirely bad or good or what to make of this. On the good side, nobody spends 90% of their income on sharing a home with other adults because every week 1000s of new immigrants are brought in to keep real estate prices and a home to live or rent at outrageous life-killing prices.
Some interesting questions rise up: how will this decline affect China in the long run?
If 'the west' persists its population numbers with increases in migration, will China fail in becoming a superpower? Let me know what you think :)
Migration is not the answer to boost population. It creates a lot of cultural tension, both among the majority and minorities.
If the west persists in boosting numbers through migration, it will become a hellhole with lots of inner conflicts, let alone remain a superpower. Just look at the worsening situation in the UK, which is a melting pot.
The west should follow the example of gulf countries that only give work visa to foreigners.
Also, there is no correlation between population and superpower.
Good governance is the fundamental factor of a superpower. And China and the US both will remain superpowers as long as they have efficient governance. Russia, on the other hand, has a corrupt and weak government due to which it is not a superpower anymore.
shi na will not b able to overthrow the world if they dont have the manpower to do it or sustain it.
very true. Am curious how countries will cope when half their populations are over 65
All well to do nations tend to have small but well educated populations and therefore enjoy more pristine environments. China is definitely moving on the right path despite the fact that there will be some shorter term challenges. Overpopulation is a recipe for poverty.
Fascinating that China still have more births than Europe (including Russia) and the USA combined, by a wide margin. They're having more than enough births still, in absolute numbers, to be an industrial and military superpower (a "hegemon" if you will) long into the future... The problem being that they had a truly incomprehensible amount of births before the 80s. And to take care of such a staggeringly immense, ageing cohort -- they would need to continue to have an equally staggering amount of children today. There's no painless exit from the situation, unless we can mass produce ~ human level AI workers in 50 years.
Good lord having to take care of all your parents and grandparents and then also have a career and also get married and have kids and raise them sounds near impossible
It's a bad thing that we don't know how to deal with population shrink, companies never plan to shrink. It will be interesting to see the new competitive shrinking strategies. All you have to do is look at Detroit and you'll se what its like. When it bounces back again will we have to regenerate everything?
No country has been able to bounce back though because it’s a viscous feedback loop. While I don’t think humans will go extinct from it, there still is no end in sight.
I think we’ll start relying heavily on AI/robots. A lot more work will become automated. Young workers will be funnelled into jobs that robots can’t do eg aged care, teaching, psychologists etc
The '800 million by 2100' is based on a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.45. China is already far below that, with most recent years showing a TFR of 1.25. With such a low TFR, the population in 2100 will be 650 million. Should the TFR fall to just 1.1, the number in 2100 will be just 575 million (of which 275 million will be over age 65 and 300 million below).
There was a time when manybeconomies were based on family farm food production where more children in a family translated into more wealth for that family.
That model no longer applies in the industrial age where having more children place a larger burden on the working parents.
As third world nations evolve into industrialized nations this syndrome spreads as we are seeing in Asian countries where personal wealth involves having fewer expensive children to pay for
Can you do more of demographics videos on other countries and their implications as well?
Theres also huge migration of Chinese moving abroad. I noticed a phenomenal increase of Chinese people in UK and Australia over the last 5 years.
I used to live in NYC, Brooklyn and Manhattan are filled to the brim. The West Coast as well actually
The American embassy in China has huge lines of people wait for visas and large overworked staffs handling all the people leaving. Every time a major issue happens in China, Chinese search engines record everyone looking up visa requirements.
In the UK this is most likely HongKongers, since CCP didn't keep its end of the bargain the government has allowed a large wave of migration.
I was born in the China’s one child policy era. We are unfortunately the group who doesn’t have siblings. Not because our parents or us don’t want any. It’s kinda sad to think about it.
I've lived a life where the planet went from a peak so high I knew I'd be jealous of the future I'd never know. Now I'm disappointed I wasn't born sooner not having to witness these terrible times or disgusting ppl.
Great video! My only problem is that it kinda makes it seem like China, the US, UK, Japan, India, and Canada are the only countries with high GDP. in reality, Germany has a higher GDP than India, France has a higher GDP than Canada, and Russia, Italy, Iran, Brazil, South Korea, and Australia all have GDPs nearing Canada's. they should probably be shown on the GDP charts too, or it should be noted that the charts only include specific countries.
I think it's a good thing. I mean look at all the automation, if tech continues advancing and deglobalization continues, many countries will find it hard to provide employment to their surplus population.