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Ukraine War: Why has Russia's spring offensive started early?
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- Published on May 27, 2023 veröffentlicht
- Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell takes a look at NATO claims Russia's anticipated spring offensive against Ukraine has already started in the east of the country.
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Truth is the first casuality in war. How true this is
It was always going to be a winter offensive. In fact it started late. They mobilised in September. It's been 4 months of training and equipment refurbishment
Does equipment refurbishment mean bringing out mothballed T-62s?
Because winter is the logical time to begin the spring offensive, The ground is hard enough to bear the weight of armour.
Cold or warm it is about keeping pressure on so Ukrainians has no time to train new recruits.
@infocrypt agreed
They do have time to train new recruits as the country as whole isn’t under threat like this time last year
Warm winter, ground is just mud.
There was no Spring invasion planned. The invasion was planned when they (Russia) had one week of freezing weather so the ground is frozen rock hard for the heavy tanks etc.
That all great until it becomes muddy. This is just a push to try and get some propaganda victory
@TheDesertRat_95 Russian tanks fare better than heavier Western tanks in that mud
Ye idk why they called it a spring offensive when it was clearly never gonna happen in the spring
@draftee the white tr@$h f@ggot ye cuz theyre a lot lighter
"We were looking forward to Spring offensive" doubt many would agree that?
His arms dealers scriptwriters are probably
This gentleman had disappeared as usual, when things go badly for Ukraine. Prof. Michael Clarke will resurface when Russia suffers a reverse.
I know yeah wtf
I'm sure the Chabad Lubavitch is looking forward to it.
I'm sure everything is thought out in this regard
It started early because the tanks coming into Ukraine are still at least a month out, getting the ground they can cuz defending is always easier.
I won't ever recommend that cos of those tanks. This is too much haste. Defensive mines and ambushes and such to exhaust the tanks is much better to waste lives on pushing the lines when the lines are not weakened enough.
Russia will still win by dragging the war, but reckless moves will hit Russia very hard indeed. Those newbies need training till Autumn when Ukraine lines shall begin to falter if the casualty rate maintains at Ukraine's side.
Well... ... choices of the mortals are usually unusual... ...
Everyone keeps forgetting that russkie are not Baghdad crow with sticks and stones, they got really cool toys to play with too.
Actually they’re at least 3 months out and most countries that have pledged tanks are now backtracking
@Tammy Kennedy wrong.
4 weeks, and more have been sent, with boats and trains full of them.
Russia never said it will start a new offensive in spring,the media did.
Yes, people should recall this was merely a speculation in the Western press.
this isn’t the first time i have heard of a rushed spring offensive in a major european war…
"looking forward to the spring offensive.." Oh, yes. it will be absolutely splendid! This guy would make a great cricket commentator.
i had to rewind it!!! could'nt believe he said that 🤣🤣
Yes, his tan would suggest he is knowledgeable about cricket.🤗
Lol
I have no idea why they keep on spinning BS with these "experts".
I hope that Ukraine will continue to get all the weapons it needs to help it kick out the Russian occupiers
Why does this war sound more and more like a weather report
Because it is.
Weather has always played a key role.
Mainly when it comes to aircraft however it can affect conditions on the ground like rain creating mud.
Well, for once, they didn't say Bakhmut is useless and not strategic xD
And never mention the north - south supply line that was cut ... never ... verboten !
"some form of battlefield success" "very inexperienced soldiers" how does that work Sky Analyst??
The reason why Ukraine is putting so much effort around bakhmut is because the Russians are willing to fight for it and urban warfare is about a 7-1 advantage in favor of the defending side. Ukraine is getting a really good kill-death ratio all for a leveled city that has very little strategic value apart from having multiple roads running through it.
@LongDongKong Of course they are dingdong ..... keep telling yourself that. Wait and see what happens when Russia has cleared the city out. It leaves the west wide open.
"Why did the Spring Offensive start early?"
Ummm ... the Winter Offensive started late due to unseasonably warm weather....
Lol
Climate change!!! knew it, they were right all along. winter is now spring and spring will be summer. I just hope we don't miss autumn and go straight to spring again
russia has not started an offensive yet ukraine has managed many counter attacks but have lost many men in doing so the russia offensive has 500k troops and 300k of those would be fighting troops the rest being supply and other positions in any case these troops have not been brought in yet
.
@Pharisaer Watch what about rainy season?
@gabriel aleactus Rainy season will be the dry season and the dry season will be slighty windy season. Let's shuffle it ^^
“Russia is going to be trapped in a very attritional warfare.” …. Russia knows a different way of warfare?
What's with the term spring offensive? I remember them claiming they couldn't do anything until winter because the ground needs to freeze so they can move heavy equipment. So how then would spring be a good time to start an defensive?
Thanks for spending the time to create and share this content
*propaganda
When in war never wait for favorable weather keep pushing on, and don't let rest
Still waiting for the day sky news put the map key at the top of the screen rather than the bottom so we can actually see it
Was thinking this.
Why worry. Its never up to date.
Map key?
The map is out of date and has been for months.
BUT THIS IS NOT THE DAY
It was never a spring offensive see Col Douglas Macgregor, they were waiting for the ground to freeze in the south
Is this the same D mcg that said Russia would have this wrapped up by March/ then April/ may/ June / July/Aug/sept/Oct/ November/ December/ January-
A retired general from his front room knows what’s going on the ground in Ukraine…… look a little deeper into the said genius- why didn’t he get his desired job in Europe after retirement?
Lol why would anyone listen to Douglas macgregor? He has been proven wrong consistently. He just spouts Kremlin talking points. Remember that time he said it would be all over for Ukraine within a week, and then the next day Ukraine launched the Kharkiv counteroffensive and retook 7000 square KM?
@hochmeisterr different guy but still grossly uninformed and consistently proven wrong. He repeats Russian propaganda to get paid for tv appearances, simple as that. He reminds me a bit of Giuliani, who in the 80’s/early 90’s was allegedly a good prosecutor and well spoken, but got old and started babbling nonsense for a paycheck and relevance. Macgregor was involved in one of the great tank battles of gulf war (although every other tank commander had similarly impressive results against Iraqi tanks), and now he’s washed up, hasn’t been in service or any command role since 2003, and he’s not close to an impartial source.
they are going pretty good even though they ran out of missles months ago..
Yes not bad for an army of rusty guns, no ammo, boots on the wrong feet and cannot tie shoelaces.
What I have realised from listening to media and information from both sides is as the general public we actually don't know what actually is happening on the ground. The truth is somewhere in the middle but thats becoming harder and harder to tell
I agree the media is so one sided it’s irritating.
there is a live map available showing events as they occur
Currently Russia is making small gains. Ukraine and NATO are running out of certain ammunition specifically the himars rocket system. That's the weapon that gave them the advantage.
So much for the 'long dark winter ahead' of a few weeks ago. Seems it went quick!
Does anyone else see like these gentlemen seem like they are in a weather forecast studio ?
They brought this person again! 90% of what he says is his personal opinions. As for the rest, he occasionally hints to the real developments on the ground!
Botnik?
yeah, he's been bad... says some random bullshit
Because it’s a winter offensive and has always been a planned winter offensive.
Russia never announced a spring offensive haha.
Russia also never announced its invasion of Ukraine last February, but there are still thousands of dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
I hope that Ukraine will continue to get all the weapons it needs to help it kick out the Russian occupiers
@John Lyle
I have yet to hear or see in print Russians stating anything about a spring offensive. Along those lines, I have yet to see their "playbook." Armor rolls better on frozen ground than on mud.
Noone ever said it was,stated it was assumed it would be but they were wrong or it was brought forward
yep, sick of seeing this glib crutch word "playbook"
How long does mud take to dry?
true, more like 'lets take it while we still can before the mud comes' than 'waiting for the spring'
I just checked the Institute for the Study of War map shown by Sky today against the one it showed on December 7th. The two versions of the map were identical. Sky is using the the same map, unchanged, day after day, month after month. Both incorrectly show "Russian Advances" (red on yellow stripes) starting from the Dnieper river and going east all along the fighting front even though the Russians have only advanced in tiny parts of those areas since last spring. The map also fails to show huge areas north of Kiev as "Ukranian Reclaimed Territory".
I noticed this too that they are just brushing away bahkmut,kramatorsk,donetszk, totally ignored let alone what we dont know this propaganda sounds familiar to me
Good catch.
@Jml senn I'm figuring that Sky is failing to update the map out of laziness, not in an attempt to misrepresent the situation. The map misstates the current situation in a way that would exaggerate Russian success by suggesting recent Russian advances that didn't happen, and ignoring Ukraine's success in removing the Russians from the areas north of Kiev, but the guest commentators like Clarke and Bell are clearly not sympathetic to the Russians. Sky is just being cheap and sloppy, not manipulative.
Sky believe in their own lies. Nothing new.
Could someone pin a source as to where I might be able to find some authentic map updates?
Because it was always supposed to be a winter offensive? Duh.
Don't overthink why the Russians are on the offensive.
It's because "poor Winter weather" is mostly cold. But with cold comes frozen and that facilitates movement which is important for offensive operations.
Why do "experts" talk about a Spring offensive? That's the worst of the 4 seasons to be attacking because mud and flowing streams favor the defense. If the Russians aren't attacking now, they'll probably have to wait until Summer as the Ukrainians (and timing of new West deliveries of heavy tanis and other weapons) appear to planning since the Winter offensive made so little progress this past year.
Why do so many so-called experts keep talking about Spring offensives? Offensives happen during Spring only because it's a time of year and maybe no one wants to relieve pressure but it's by far the worst season to be planning any grand operations. One only has to look at last year when the ill timed Russian invasion resulted in convoys of vehicles and troops queued up on roads, unable to get to the front, still stuck in Russia. Rusia might have had nearly 200,000 troops deployed to invade Ukraine in the beginning, but in many places were unable to fight the 20,000 or so Ukrainians because of poor planning, timing and execution.
The Russians are fighting close to their supply lines now. There's no comparison with Feb last year when they were trying to do deep penetrations.
@Black Cat Dungeon Master's Familiar precisely!
@Black Cat Dungeon Master's Familiar he is not talking about supply routes. Just season.
the "air is no good either".
Every line starts with "almost certainly". Why doesn't he just say "in my opinion".
It’s a winter offensive, not an “early spring offensive”, isn’t it?
Isn't winter about to end tho ?
@gabriel aleactus Pretty much nearing 1 year into the war that was basically mud season.
The effect of modern artillery shells exploding on frozen ground near a dug out..shattering to the brain cells.
"Not life, but good life, is to be chiefly valued."
Socrates
The bigger question is, Why has it stalled so soon?
There is no offensive at all
Tired of the nonsense, most military experts have alluded to the understanding that heavy tracked vehicles such as tanks and wheeled vehicles as well easily get stuck in the mud, particularly during Spring season, most of these experts predicted that there would therfore be a Winter offensive for this very reason when the ground is frozen and hard, so this idea that Russia's offensive has commenced early is ridiculous...!!!
How long does a wet ground stay muddy for when it stops snowing and raining?
They didnt start early.
Our experts got it wrong when they said nothing would happen until the spring and the news isnt commenting on the fact that they got it wrong even though they did it on your tv show.
Because Ukraine trolled them saying it was coming on the 24th so they rushed
Ontop of western armour due to arrive in Late march early April.
Offensives from 2 different directions require good logistics. If anything we should learn if Russian logistics are as bad as we have been thinking.
They must have some very good gear at this point, and well trained men. Some may even have 3 months of military training. They are so green that this really must be the big spring offensive.
The russian railroad points Bakhmut, it's all about logistic I think
Apparently “This spring offensive is happening earlier than USUAL” ???
This Sky presenter has reminded me, I must get my teak table re-varnished.
I was thinking how orange everyone seems to look.
I thought I was watching a Minstrels show...
🤗☺️☺️....looking like he's been browned up for a 1970s sitcom 🤔🤗🤗....
@Groundwork Civils ☺️🤗😆😆👍
It started early because the tanks Ukraine is getting is going to take some time to arrive
As always Russia 🇷🇺 not working on western timelines 🤣🤣🤣 the so called experts 🙄 wrong again
6 meters between each russian solider along a 1200km front... With a 100 leopard tanks that means , ''1 tank every 12km'' (1 tank every 7.5 miles)
Its about the important roads and railways. But feel free to crawl through the mud
Tanks are meant for breakthroughs and counter offensives. Not to hold positions.
So please point out what that 1 guy every 6 meters can do when 10 Leopards are coming at him?
@Pikkabuu how about 1 soldier throwing a grenade that takes off the track - disabling the Tank.
@Groundwork Civils
A fragmentation grenade isn't strong enough to do that. And the soldier would still get atomised by the ten tanks afterwards.
@Pikkabuu those tanks will last a week at most, every tank they send into battle will get killed by artillery. Artillery guide this war not soldiers.
I like these reporting jobs at Sky News. Tell half truths and get paid for it. Kind of like a politician.
Krasna Hora, that name occurs in almost every Slavic country... very common.
surprised the Russians dont have paratroopers to drop well behind the line to shut off supplys and escape routes.
I think most people are afraid of an aggressive southern thrust...
Well, yeah!!!
The day after can be brutal.
Like Sean's analyzes but did he just say"looking forward to this" in regards to the Spring offensive? I hope not.
Russia could easily defeat the entire Anglosphere
@BullBUTTER lol
@BullBUTTER lol 😂 thats the funniest thing I've ever read. Well done.
@sparky bojangles Funny thing is, they could. On their ground of course. 99.99999 % Chance they Destroy all Anglosphere.
I'm looking forward to it
I use to think it had but now i'm not sure. There's no force accumulations massing.
As if i am looking at a weather report of which i know its always wrong.
With the counteroffensive by Steinersky, everything will be allright.
It's like a daily weather report XD
JUSTICE FOR JULIAN ASSANGE ‼️
The Air Vice Marshall is wrong. He is downplaying Bakhmut. This is the main action now and Ukrainian stubbornness is turning it into a cauldron. Some say 10 000 troops are in danger of encirclement. I'm surprised at his remark about Western tanks coming to tip the balance against the Russians. 14 Challengers, 14 Leopards and 30 Abrams are a long, long way from arriving and even if and when they arrive in theatre will not change the outcome of the war. Russia has 1800 tanks on the theatre. They are about to launch their offensive.
The Air Vice Marshal is not credible. He has made several assessments in the past about Ukraine being successful in the fighting. They are not true. Will Sky News please report the truth.
I love the B.S..Always entertaining to watch SKy News..Nothing really factual but the projection is always present..
Please explain what's really happening in detail.
Most people new it had started a few weeks ago but that doesn't fit sky's narrative
Backhmut is under tactical encirclement and that's not the Russian offensive it's shaping operation for the offensive
Shaping the battlefield yes.
Bakhmut is not under tactical encirclement, 3 highways are still being used that go into Bakhmut and yesterday another Highway was made useful again after Wagner forces were pushed out of proximity.
@Reaper yes I never say operational encirclement all roads can be used but they are in artillery and rocket range
@world crisis WW3 Intel 2 of them aren't in range
@Reaper all of them is including the tracks leading true d fields
They are having an early offensive so they will be sure to have one.
Didn't Sky say before Christmas that Ukraine were going on a big offensive soon. Everytime I look on Clip-Share channels its the Russians on the offensive. If there finding it this hard to break the Ukrainian defensive positions with all the equipment they have how is the Ukrainians ever going to break Russian defensive positions when they go on there big offensive and the Russians have set up there defensive positions.
Life of new Ukrainian solders is 4 hours in Bakhmut. Police is catching them in markets, streets... taking them by force and sending them to front lines where they dont last long
@Nenad Mitrovicsource? Trust me bro 🤦♂️
@Jürgen Kaps and about cathing people to force them to front line, there is tons of videos, of people around them recording family or random people in the streets, sometimes someone manages to run away, but its rare. One guy thry got him while skiing
Russia just lost 31 tanks and nearly 1000 men attacking a small village Vulhedar, they were driving over their own troop, grisly
@Nenad Mitrovic its fake and im in Ukraine right now people love to fight for their country and their freedom
For those who wanted to know; the Ukrainian reclaimed territory is the yellow part of the map
I see no yellow 💛
@MrDelvoye I think that's the point!🤣🤣🤣
How about the area around the kiev??? Troll
@Intelektshual day it's not in yellow isn't that obvious to see
@Abby haha funny 😂😂
Getting ahead of the expected NATO allies' additional support being prepared.
Because it Hasn't started Late! Is the Straight Answer.
I take the Beeb and Sky news with a pinch of salt. One must remember this is mainstream and the mouth piece of the UK gov propaganda.
It sure seems that way.
Not a Pinch of Salt ,But a few kilos.
BBC is around 25th in the world for freedom of the press, Russia is 155th
The soldiers have to spread 6 meters? 😂 Please tell this guy we're not in the seventeen houndreds
Again, they just telling us what they only wanted to tell us or wanted to hear
Yes mostly misleading imformation
Interestingly this video autoplayed immediately after I finished a (more recent) video detailing how the Ukrainians had recovered a chunk of that lower-half of the pincer surrounding Bakhmut - so that's ~2 weeks worth of Russian slow territorial gain there now completely reversed.
Sean Bell always excellent. Analysis spot on.
Excellent propagandist
Prof. Clarke is better
Military Summary Channel is the best
They started early as they know the Tanks etc are coming soon.
Its funny to see military experts becoming lectureres
Because it's a winter offensive
Isn’t the question ‘why haven’t the Russians followed the timeline we made up on Sky?
It's not like we've been through all this before, a frustrated mid century painter already found all these problems out.
Ukraine needs to head on down to Chia's party store.
Grab a bag of balloons and float them over Moscow.
That should tie up the Russian airforce for awhile.
lol the Russian's could never shoot that down, it takes an F-22 'Raptor' to do such a job.
The western tanka will take weeks to arrive he says. Some will take around a year.
Let’s see how long exactly might be sooner than we’ve been led to believe
@mitchellperry3462 #Ukraine is finished 🙌. Crasnaya Gora town has been captured by Russian. 50 countries to 1. Its a shame for the west.🙈🙉🙊
3:13...Why is weather so powerful...
Did he just say we was looking forward to the spring invasion??
Yep and what a ridiculous thing to say.
Poor wording on his part. He probably meant that they have been anticipating the spring offensive.
"Looking forward" doesn't have a "with excitement and pleasure" sense to it here. It just means "anticipating."
@Aaron Nagy +1
Vlad Putin has apologised for jumping the gun. He thought he heard the umpire blow the whistle. So on with the game.
Sky news and british ministry of highly unlikely are becoming a laughing stock by the day.
Love it when trolls skip the English classes
sunny ☀️ day Reported. Enjoy.
The offensive hasn’t started yet !
The good air marshall trying to keep a straight face at the chocolate coloured presenter here.
It started early because the world told Russia when the tanks are coming lol 😆
War is never ending
Wrong.
Does anyone else feel it weird that "experts" are discussing and explaining a REAL War like it's just any other Football match?
To avoid having to pay the cost of training the soldier s first?
The thoughts and opinions should not be shown, let the enemy think about this - don't help them!!!!
Not a single word of what is going on NOW. Pure especulation.
It's called OPSEC.
Cough cough
Russia got slaughtered in Vulhedar 👍👏
It's the fogger war.
@andrew30 some Russians were slaughtered by there own 🤣
Couple wee daftys tried to hide under a moving tank 🤦♂️🤦♂️
This was the one that said that Russia was running out of amo and missiles fire him.
Have some free punctuation, troll: ...,,,,!!!!????
O yeah, the Ukrainians are trained very well and the tanks are waiting for them, or maybe not...
Why now? For one, the ground remains frozen hard so armored forces can move relatively easily. The spring melt has not started yet, which will bring movement to a standstill. Secondly, political pressure given the February anniversary and thirdly, fear of new western heavy weapons arriving in March.
Yes, but they only have 2-3 weeks, then it will get muddy again and they'll have to wait until the end of April or so.
@KEN LIEBERMAN just shows how desperate Kremlin is becoming. 2-3 weeks to achieve what they have not managed to do for the past year shows tgeate if the Russian military and its political leadership.
Did I miss anything?!
I do not see any Russian offensive except a couple of small scale operations.
Some of these were successful (e.g. Soledar aka "Gift of salt"), others were failures (e.g. Vugledar aka "Gift of coal").
I do not think that Russians have numbers for a massive offensive.
Agreed. Half-cocked approach, just to try and win something before the Leopards arrive.
They have hundreds of thousands of men available and finishing off their training.
Most of that 300,000 called up won't be in this fight till next month. Possibly not till April.
The small scale operations are most likely probing attacks (also near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and in Zhaporizha) are to see if it is worth going forward with a bigger offensive.
The deliveries of western tanks likely pressure the ruSSians to strike before the new weapons arrive.
Yes trick Russian into attacking before have logistics ready.
Because they are slow to harness but quick to ride
Times radio showing video of non capture serving Russians speaking freely, given four magazines for small arms to take Ukrainian tank and mortar positions.
What’s the status of the nato tanks? Are there any arrived yet? 😢
is it just me or does this presenter look like hes just been to Spain for 2 weeks?
Professor never been in battle field and give and making public stupid.
Thats not a natural tan..
Not Spain that was last year ,this year he went to Morocco
If this is the sort of analysis we get from the RAF - thank God for the Navy!
🤣
The Navy is even worse….😅
Remember the navy uses glue to fix it's ships!
Many thanks for the update, Air Vice-Admiral, but, please, stop feeding us with such nonsense like the Russian troops are totally inexperienced. Except for that those men served (at least) a year of military service as conscripts when they were younger, they also took part in a military drill every five years or so. And before they were dispatched at the front, they had received a three- or four-month additional training. So, they obviously know nothing about the art of war, ha, ha. Come on! This does not help to anyone.
Is that why they are sent as canonfodder in human wave attacks?
Does Russia know what manuever warfare and combined arms are?
@Ragnarok Hi,
For an alternative perspective on the conflict, please consider viewing the various Clip-Share contributions from (i) Col. Douglas MacGregor, and (ii)Scott Ritter. These 2 gentlemen are Americans who have retired from the military but have very impressive credentials, knowledge and insight. Regarding casualties, it looks like the Ukrainians have suffered about 150,000 dead and about 400,000 casualties. They estimate the Russian loses at about 35,000 dead and 80,000 casualties. The Russian tactic is to send walls of artillery and rockets at the Ukrainians and to remain at a distance, where possible. The Russians value there troops and they are not treating them as cannon fodder; I thinks it’s the Ukrainians who are being senselessly wasted. I think Sky is sugar-coating the Ukrainian’s plight. Let’s hope for peace soon
@Michael Maguire Scott Ritter has been predicting Bakhmut will fall within a week, for the last five months.
@Michael Maguire Nobody takes those people seriously!
@P R well, so about time he may be right, the roads are about getting cut off.
Presenter looks like he went to the same spray tanning place as Ross in an episode of friends.
That’s the wooliest reporting I’ve ever seen.
My sources hold that the main offensive will be in the North of Luhansk (and again from stationed troops on Belarus). And it seems it has already started in the east of Kupiansk.
is that on your hotline to the Kremlin.
@boota1979😂
Yes by this way they can retake kharkiv and by the time full donbas is in their control and also kherson in the South, then they will began peace talks, but the point is will ukraine 🇺🇦 sacrifice all these for Peace and indeed they should not
@HaleG Ukraine will prevail