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Tesla's GAME-changing LFP battery plans will make billions

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  • Published on Jan 31, 2023 veröffentlicht

Comments • 289

  • Wesley Edwards
    Wesley Edwards Year ago +10

    One of your best episodes mate, amongst an ocean of golden content! Well done 👏

  • Robert Nicholson
    Robert Nicholson Year ago +22

    Great information as usual. I hope Tesla succeeds, our survival depends on it. Tesla is pushing advances far faster then waiting for the green movement to convince corrupt politicians. We can actually accelerate eliminating fossil fuels based on simple economics. No need to convince a climate denier that our survival is at risk, just show them they will pay less and get a better product. The Tesla model 2 (or whatever they call it) will be huge in this respect as well. I support Tesla for this reason. I suspect Tesla is delaying model 2 because it will hurt model Y sales where their margin is greater. The BYD Dolphin will help push Tesla faster to a model 2 production. Tesla is very much a huge driving force helping the climate. I love to see Tesla moving against coal power. Go Tesla.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      @Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore
      I think you're wrong about the coal/ gas plants.
      They still have costs to supply the raw materials.
      Those are going to be taxed, and or public opinion will demand the supply is cut.
      V2 G, probably not necessary.
      V2 H is sufficient.
      Removing the "home" (building from the grid is as effective and much less complicated than supplying excess to the Grid. It also stops the shady practices were seeing from some utilities, charging s levy for home generation.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      @Timothy Hanes
      Ok, let's consider.
      L
      Those "3 billion people", freed from the stranglehold of oil producers and "related currencies" will revel in the liberation of more virtually free energy than THEY ever had.
      .
      They will use the cheap power to start businesses, educate the previously uneducated (but smart!) sections of their population and thrive.
      .
      On the contrary, those previously living "La Dolce Vita" in high consumption, oil rich (oil dependant!) capitalist countries, who try to maintain the lifestyle may find themselves with "a problem"
      .
      It just depends how much THEY wish to maintain the Status Quo.
      (Hey USA, how's it going??)

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      @Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore
      "Coal consumption rose rapidly last year"?
      Well, it was down 4% in 2020,
      Are you confusing say (USA) 4% of the 19% it had dropped to pre SARS2, with 4% of total consumption?
      4% of 19 (20)% would be..... 0.8% of total.
      Not so bad.
      Then consider that the majority of new energy projects are now "green".
      The trend will still be down.
      As for "individual buying decisions".
      You can only buy what's available.
      The manufacturers have a stark choice.
      They make small margins on large, but decreasing(!) numbers of ICE vehicles.
      A relatively small dip removes that profit.
      Unless they decide to pivot now, they are going to have "frozen assets" which make dieselgate look tiny.
      .
      If THEY have to shift, "the individual" (after a fire sale) won't have the choice to buy an ICE car.
      .
      If an individual does buy one ("cheap", in the fire sale) they'd better be prepared to keep it for a long time (no resale value) AND deal with rapid increase in fuel costs.
      .
      Coming very soon.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      @Jim Roth
      Which "scientific concencus" is that then? Not what I e seen.
      Links?

    • Robert Nicholson
      Robert Nicholson Year ago +2

      @Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore very good points and thanks for the correction on stats on France. I think there is an important role for molten salt reactors, the technology seems basically ready to deploy. I wonder if France is working on this. And of coarse France is the home of the ITER reactor and a leader in the project. I have great hopes that the EU will lead us out of this foul mess we are in. And vive la France!

  • fritz rauer
    fritz rauer Year ago +29

    They said on the earnings call that they won't be battery but chip-constrained. Don't see why you doubt this with all the battery contracts they've signed plus their own ramping battery construction. With two bottlenecks, chips and batteries, the smaller one is the constraint, while the larger one becomes irrelevant. They say the smaller one is chips, so why doubt what they are saying? Yes, IF they get enough chips, then batteries become a constraint again, but not until then

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      @Greg Bailey
      I don't think they will battery production constrained at all (raw materials allowing)
      See my other post.

    • Greg Bailey
      Greg Bailey Year ago +2

      They're both constraints, but chips are the biggest, so batteries aren't!

  • Jim Roth
    Jim Roth Year ago +7

    When Tesla says they "will not be battery constrained" this year, they mean that battery availability will not be the main bottleneck for car production. Broader supply chain issues are the main bottleneck. If supply chain problems were solved car production would increase even more than planned, but only up to a level allowed by battery availability. They might have leftover batteries they would have preferred to put into cars. If the leftover batteries are lithium IRON phosphate they might be used for energy storage products, otherwise they might be kept for use in cars after the general supply chain improves. Bottom line... they will continue to increase car production more than 50 percent per year.

  • James Norman
    James Norman Year ago +3

    Tesla will be battery constrained (using the January supply agreements) but will not be for the year because they will recognize any extra demand (Semi or Powerwall) and go shopping for more Supply (probably building or funding new plants around the globe. A very good news story. Sam, thank you once again. jim

  • Ryan Chappell
    Ryan Chappell Year ago +10

    I think that tesla will ramp energy projects as fast as possible to make the statement. "Make LFP batteries and you'll have a buyer." Tesla's main mission is the accelerate the advent of renewable energy. The car is just one part of that goal. The more people that make batteries the better. This is the way to end fossil fuel usage.

    • Ryan Chappell
      Ryan Chappell 11 months ago +1

      @Roger Starkey Sure, it makes perfect sense. LFP is the perfect chemistry for stationary applications and low-range electric cars. Since we are currently in the adoption period for EVs, people need as long of range as possible to feel safe with the charging infrastructure currently in place. LFP doesn't perform as well as the current chemistries tesla uses as far as range and power goes but Musk knows that as range anxiety lessens, LFP will be the clear and most practical choice. Tesla needs mind boggling quantities of LFP for stationary storage as well as low-range EVs such as the standard range Model 3. It makes perfect sense for Tesla to only make the top of the line high capacity high output 4680s for their own cars and buy as much as possible LFP from other suppliers. The chinese patents for LFP expire in 2022 which means that lots of companies will be able to make them very affordably in the US and all over the world. As fast as they can make them, tesla will buy them for grid storage applications at the very least. That demand is nuts because solar is now the cheapest way to produce power but it needs batteries to work well. Margins on LFP in and after 2022 will be very low so it's better for tesla to focus their engineering might and manufacturing talent elsewhere. LFP is the future but it's also old tech at this point.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      Is Tesla "making LFP batteries"?
      Try to get around the logic bomb.
      .
      "LFP is the future (about 80% of product)"
      .
      "We will need/ make(?) 3TWh in 2030 or before".
      .
      "Our fastest, most efficiently produced cell is not LFP"
      .
      So, that's about 600 GWh of 4680.
      .
      Leaving
      2,400GWh of LFP made in larger factories using a slower process?
      By other companies?
      🤔
      Really??
      Doesn't sound "very Tesla"?

    • Van Rozay
      Van Rozay Year ago +1

      right: along with increasing solar panel, wind turbine use tied to (near) the storage facility.

  • Eugenius Theodidactus

    *Easily one of your best and well researched videos!* Much appreciated.

  • Dogman3690
    Dogman3690 Year ago +17

    No battery constraints Tesla has to many competing supplyers working hard to please.😃

  • Norm Peplow
    Norm Peplow 11 months ago +1

    I am from a manufacturing and product introduction background. What Tesla is doing blows my mind. To get man, materials, processes, designs, etc in line with time constraints is a huge undertaking. The E Viking does a great job reporting and explaining.

  • Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore

    Fact check: The UK is not phasing out nuclear power. Some older stations are being shut down but Hinckley Point C is under construction with others in the planning. In 2020 UK generated 16% of its power from nuclear.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      @Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore
      Side note.
      Storage doesn't have to be LiON..... Just "efficient" (so NO Hydrogen)

    • Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore
      Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore Year ago +2

      @Roger Starkey I am in violent agreement with you Roger, the MWh strike price for Hinckey C is ridiculous when you compare it with the contracts being written today for wind and solar. Let’s be honest, Hinckley C is all about the UK staying at the nuclear arms table, having the ability to produce weapons grade material. All permanent members of the UN Security Council have nuclear power programmes which feed into their military. However, the problem of how to support base load is unlikely to be solved by LiON batteries alone, they are great at supplying the grid for a few hours at a time but cannot deal with the kind of winter weather conditions we have now. As I write this I am looking out my window at one of 7 x 3MWp wind turbines, this one is about 1km from my plot here. It is barely turning in the windless high pressure we have had for the past week in the Charente. In central Europe it is even worse...Germany, Poland etc get long periods of dismal grey, no wind but much colder than here. LiOn can do the MW but not the MWh, we need MW days!..One solution could be Redox flow batteries, another using old mineshaft for gravity based generation systems...and of course massive DC connections carrying potentials of > 1 million Volts over long distances as they are doing in China. The wind is always blowing somewhere and Europe has 65,000 km of coastline...the problem is solvable but long duration storage is a tough one.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      The UK may not be ..... yet.
      But we SHOULD.
      With Hinckley running late, way over budget and contracted to supply energy at double(!) the strike price of wind/solar, it's not exactly a bargain for the UK taxpayer.
      With green energy prices still falling, I wonder how a new "Unclear" project could be justified on cost by the UK government (still double the strike price?)
      Alternatively, if the government (small g) negotiate an energy price which compares to green energy, where's the profit for the contractor?
      Note there's already a "profit issue" at Hinckley.
      ..
      The differential is too great.
      Of course, it does depend on the level of stupidity,corruption, or both of those negotiating.🤔
      (Don't even mention the 10-15 year wait or the huge carbon footprint of the build)

    • Andreas Delleske
      Andreas Delleske Year ago +1

      @Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore OK - how do they explain to the public that nuclear energy is even without insurance about 4 times more expensive than solar and wind? Planned is not built by the way. The concept is dead, it's just zombies running around.

    • Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore
      Kia e-Niro Diaries Encore Year ago +1

      @Aitor Bleda If you’re talking about the UK, we’re not. Sizewell B has another 20 years of life and Hinckley C will come on stream sometime this decade. I’m not saying that this is good, it’s just how it is.

  • Jan van Rookhuijzen
    Jan van Rookhuijzen Year ago +11

    As an EV market analist myself I'm impressed by how much content you make every day. My reports take months. However, please make sure you have the power and energy units right, there are several mistakes in this video alone. You're forgiven for it, but it for first timers on your channel it might give the impression you have no idea what you're talking about. Good work, keep it coming!

    • Alex Manojlovic
      Alex Manojlovic Year ago

      @Jan van Rookhuijzen I suspect you're in my age bracket (or close enough). Blame your eyesight... Never fails... 😉

    • Jan van Rookhuijzen
      Jan van Rookhuijzen Year ago +1

      @Alex Manojlovic it is. I should not reply to anything in a hurry :)

    • Alex Manojlovic
      Alex Manojlovic Year ago +1

      @Jan van Rookhuijzen yeah we guessed! It was comically ironic after your comment to Sam. Just teasing.....

    • Jan van Rookhuijzen
      Jan van Rookhuijzen Year ago +1

      @Alex Manojlovic haha, my mistake. My phone autocorrected analyst to analist (Dutch) and I missed it.

    • Alex Manojlovic
      Alex Manojlovic Year ago

      Yes... Please make sure you have the job description correct Jan. Well, unless your wife's a game girl...

  • Ingmar Kronfeldt
    Ingmar Kronfeldt Year ago +8

    If Tesla has other constraints, such as chips, then they do not need as many batteries as would have been the case if they had no constraints at all.

    • Russell
      Russell 11 months ago

      Energy storage doesn't require anywhere near as many chips (nor the same type of chips) that are constraining the automotive sector.

  • General Zaphod's Universe

    Overall I very much appreciate your videos. I do disagree with you fairly often. For example, it is a bit strange to assume that not meeting demand is only possibly a factor of batteries. You do realize there are like 100K other factors in building cars that could be the demand constraint, right? I would tend to guess it is one of the other 99,999 factors and Tesla's statement is correct.

  • Stephen Simpson
    Stephen Simpson Year ago +4

    Accelerate the V2G function and there is your Grid power sorted. I'm exporting at least 70kw a day as well as supplying my house with power, charging a PW2. If I had an electric car that could do V2G and every house had the same, imagine the stable grid we could have.

    • Stephen Simpson
      Stephen Simpson Year ago

      @Greg Bailey 3 phase, 3 x 5kw inverters, 54 LG panels (19.44kw). I built it to cover the bad days, not the good. So far its been spot on. If I don't export at all but equal required power I'm happy.

    • Greg Bailey
      Greg Bailey Year ago +1

      Wow! 70kW, that's a mean inverter you must have!!!

  • Charles Rovira
    Charles Rovira Year ago

    @24:30 You are *_absolutely_** right!* I fully expect *Tesla* to be, and to remain, _battery constrained_ until 2050 when battery _recycling_ can finally get off the ground.

  • Frederick Stirnkorb
    Frederick Stirnkorb Year ago +6

    Sam that is not a battery plant. It manufactures megapacks for Tesla. It was stated they are supply constrained on chips through 2022 not batteries. Chips for power electronics and microcontroller are the limiting factor this year.

  • Cleanitup_pls
    Cleanitup_pls Year ago +2

    For 2022 the Cybertruck and the Semi are off the table so clearly they are not battery constrained for what they can make. 2022 is the year of the Model Y and Model 3 coming from 4 factories on 3 continents and that is pretty good.

  • Island Man
    Island Man Year ago +2

    No, I don't think that they will be constrained by battery supply, unless the suppliers fail to produce what they promise. I also think that the chip constraint will lessen significantly as legacy auto will realize that their sales are plummeting this year and the auto market as a whole shrinking, making more chips available to EV makers.

    • Greg Bailey
      Greg Bailey Year ago

      Making more chips available to ICE manufacturers will not help them sell more of their junk cars.

  • N B
    N B Year ago

    Great content . Many thanks for your research and insight.

  • Marcus Mackay
    Marcus Mackay Year ago +4

    Absolutely superb presentation

  • Jim Vonn
    Jim Vonn Year ago

    A very friendly take on the possible failure of the 4680 battery Tesla needed to build Cyber Truck; Semi; and Roadster not to mention upgraded Y S X and 3. This is the backup plan I guess.

  • RedisFun2
    RedisFun2 Year ago +2

    Do you believe that Tesla's EV production will be battery constrained or Tesla energy division? I believe Tesla will sacrifice some growth in their energy side to keep the EVs moving and work through their backlog. So, it is possible Tesla will be battery constrained in other divisions, not the EV sector at this time.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago

      Every 4680 installed is 5 2170 cells "not required" in cars ........
      That'll be storage then?
      Not to mention, if the lower range cars all move to LFP, that's still 3,500 ish cells per car.

  • Tfan
    Tfan 11 months ago

    Awesome video! Thanks! Just ordered a 2022 model 3 and didn't really think to take to the track and now I'm excited to see what it's like.
    Thanks! 😁

  • Jason C
    Jason C Year ago +4

    Thank you for finally doing a video on this. Megapacks are going to be such a major cash cow for Tesla in the next 18 months. I've been saying this for months.

  • Ekwueme Anyadibe
    Ekwueme Anyadibe Year ago

    I think Tesla should rise the prices of its Semis asap unless the battery cost & volume requirement issues will create a loss operation for Tesla. She needs to find a higher & reasonable price level that buyers will accept.

  • Kasual Skeptik
    Kasual Skeptik Year ago +1

    Extremely informative videos.... Nicely done...!!

  • Charles Ashurst
    Charles Ashurst Year ago

    The old model of a few monopolistic electric utilities will give way to networks of producer/consumers and the electric utilities will become more like energy brokers.

  • Hal Eis
    Hal Eis Year ago +3

    To Sam Evans:
    I believe there is a bit of confusion in both this video and the Cox article as to what will be occurring at Lathrop. Lathrop will not be producing batteries, let me repeat that, Lathrop will not be a battery manufacturing center so it will not add to Tesla's battery supply as both implied and stated in the video. It will be receiving batteries, LFP batteries specifically, from most likely CATL but potentially other manufacturers and using this battery supply to build Mega-Packs, Power-Packs and Powerwalls. What Cox was attempting to say regarding battery supply was that because Lathrop would be increasing the supply of Tesla battery storage devices by 10 and even 20 fold over the next 2-3 years, that was indicative of Tesla believing it had not only enough batteries for its projected EV production, including the Semi and the Cybertruck (both with 4680 batteries) that it could finally comfortably divert significantly more batteries to its energy storage business.
    This also means that Lathrop could very well be the world's largest battery storage plant as the CATL facility you referenced in Shanghai is a battery production facility not a battery storage device facility.
    Finally, Sam, i think you are terrific and apologize for having to correct you.

    • David Markmann
      David Markmann Year ago +1

      I believe that Tesla will not be using cylindrical batteries in its energy storage products going forward and can just use the best/cheapest prismatic offerings from CATL, BYD, Gotion, LG or whomever.

  • Richard Cope
    Richard Cope 11 months ago

    Enhanced battery availability is great news but Elon stated that cars can be held up for any part that is in short supply or missing.

  • david pearn
    david pearn Year ago

    As a Tesla owner, I now take everything that Elon Musk says with little expectation of meeting a timeline, if one is actually included.
    The ‘gunnas’ are pie in the sky bedtime stories these days ………lots of them for the gullible.

  • Qwazy01
    Qwazy01 Year ago +1

    Lotsa goood info thanks for sharing. Tesla's last earning call chip constrained for 2022 and battery constraints expected in 2023. Tesla will blow the barn doors off expectations once suppliers are ramped to meet Tesla's demand.

  • Louis
    Louis Year ago +3

    Elon strenght is to acheived at a higher level where others give up

  • John Emmert
    John Emmert Year ago +1

    Energy storage is desperately needed to get our grid capable of handling the added stress of widespread EV adoption. My calculation yields that an EV for my wife and I would add 40% to my electric consumption. People apparently don't think about what EV adoption will do to existing infrastructure. Solar and wind really require energy storage, it is not optional.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      Have you considered that a gallon of fossil fuel requires 7kWh just to refine the oil?
      So, 30 or so miles on a gallon, or, about the same from an EV..... Without the transport, and burning of the fuel.
      So "free" miles.
      I would also reference Graeme Cooper, Head Of Future projects at the UK National Grid, (AKA, "an Expert") who has studied and reported on this (conclusion, not a problem)

    • Sabret00th Sabret00th
      Sabret00th Sabret00th Year ago +1

      Depends on a countries energy mix, countries with lots of dispatchable energy like hydro won't need battery storage. And the change to full EV adoption will happen over 20 years so plenty of time to build any infrastructure. And there is plenty of nighttime cable capacity for EV charging already (average house hold will only need about an extra 5kWh a night). Most countries already have enough consented projects ready to go to cover a total change to EV's. Look how fast the UK add 25% wind to their grid, it took 10 years. Germany is doing the same. I don't see any problems with the transition to EV's because all the problems have standard solutions that can be implemented. If electricity demand goes up generators will make more supply because it makes them morel money. And the best part is solar panels are more economical when you own an EV.

  • David Markmann
    David Markmann Year ago +2

    I think you are confusing battery production capacity with energy storage production capacity. The Tesla Lathrop plant will have the world's largest energy storage production capacity as the CATL plants just make batteries.

  • zodiacfml
    zodiacfml Year ago

    20:17 energy storage products is always used for fast/super DC charging.

  • Bicklehoff
    Bicklehoff Year ago

    I took the earnings call to mean not battery constrained for vehicle production. It never occurred to me they meant for energy storage; that wouldn’t sound right given the infinite demand for energy storage. I suppose you could amend the earnings comment to mean “we would be battery constrained if we weren’t chip constrained first”.

  • Anthony Mendoza
    Anthony Mendoza 11 months ago

    On static storage, liquid metal batteries will kill lithium-based batteries over the next 10 years. These batteries are being delivered in low volume right now. Once the manufacturing process kinks have been worked out, they will be by far the cheapest batteries in the World. (no good for vehicles though -- too heavy).

  • Laura S.
    Laura S. Year ago +10

    Tesla’s Lathrop MegaPack factory does not manufacture battery cells. It uses CATL LFP cells to produce MegaPacks.

  • dhincks1
    dhincks1 Year ago

    Elon recently said they will not have a battery problem this year. They continue to have a chip problem and that's what will restrain ramp up and production. That being said fab production is being increased with new fab plants breaking ground. In the US, Indonesia, Asia & Europe. Chip problem over by 2023. Cheers from Northern California.

  • Ben Katz
    Ben Katz Year ago +1

    800+ kilowatt hours for the semi battery. Would have impressive range with 800 gigawatt hours though. ;)

  • CostOfAutism
    CostOfAutism 9 months ago

    Don't forget that Elon has stated recently the Texas facility should provide approximately double the battery capacity of the California facility.

  • kbm blizz
    kbm blizz Year ago

    The future will rhyme with the past. Instead of chip shortage, it'll be baty🔋. For L-ICE that is, while Tesla ramps 4680s, LFPs.

  • Instructor
    Instructor Year ago +1

    Love the balance on these videos

  • David M
    David M Year ago

    They said the chip constraint will limit them not batteries. But once chip supply shortage ends then batteries will then be the limiting factor. It does imply they will have more batteries for energy but it also is clear it’s not an unlimited supply for energy

  • Grant Guy
    Grant Guy Year ago +6

    sam can talk about the same thing for hours everyday is amazing.

  • 0ooTheMAXXoo0
    0ooTheMAXXoo0 Year ago

    Growing manufacturing will be the limiting factor instead of cell supply... Not hard to believe at all and Tesla cannot lie in shareholder meetings and financial calls.

  • Jim Stoltz
    Jim Stoltz Year ago +1

    I think the constraint discussion context was around auto production and was stated as not a constraint within other constraints like chip availability and perhaps other constraints. Constraints of battery production across markets (auto and energy) most certainly exist which is why more contracts for raw materials and more production facilities are underway. Just my opinion from what has been said and observational input.

  • Bob McLaughlin
    Bob McLaughlin Year ago +2

    I think Elon’s comment about being battery constrained was in reference to vehicle production.

  • The Electric Man
    The Electric Man Year ago +1

    lfp batteries are amazing

  • Speedy McCreedy
    Speedy McCreedy Year ago

    Ahh so you’re from South Australia, the state with the highest proportion of wind/solar generation, and a massive Tesla battery. It’s also the state with the highest electricity prices in Australia by a wide margin, and the Tesla battery is being sued for non-performance. South Australia is so green it’s goose green.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      "The Tesla battery" isn't bring sued, the French operator is (was?)
      As for "non- performance"..... Do your homework.
      A *750 Megawatt* Coal plant FAILED.
      The *150 megawatt* Battery, designed for smoothing peaks, not continuous generation, may be expected to have an issue with that?
      (After all, it's only FIVE TIMES the designed maximum capacity?)
      Duh?
      As for "expensive energy".
      I was curious and took a quick look.
      A comparison site showed a BIG difference in costs.
      One in particular, Kogan energy, was very expensive, actually *70%* higher that some, for both peak rate and supply charge.... Not good!
      The thing about Kogan energy?
      They own the Coal plant which failed, leading to the blackouts!
      .
      OOOOH.... The irony.
      The internet is (sometimes) a wonderful thing.
      Maybe you should use it before mouthing off?

  • Jim Scott
    Jim Scott 5 months ago

    Fantastic work again Sam!

  • kadmow
    kadmow Year ago

    Elon would definitely Love nothing more than to be seen as "The Smartest Guy in the room" - not Just an Energy Company, why not become the Energy pipeline - ie. ENRON reborn, what could go wrong?? - monopolies always end well (jk)
    Wholesaling online hybrid capacity Plus automated Retail energy supply management - why not take over/ get onto transmission as well?
    Charging the Truck at 1MW is absolutely logical - the actual setup should (there is no other logical topology given the modular nature of batteries) simply use multiple parallel functional battery units, is 150kW is no big deal for a single pack, Just parallel 8 charge units and all of golden. (RC hobbyists -toys - have been charging LiPos at higher equivalent rates for a long time (though toy LiPo Batteries don't achieve magical sounding cycle numbers at the huge "C" rates used it does tend to "cook" the batteries in a few tens of cycles often - though that is more due to massive discharge rates with lightweight (tightly bundled) packs and no thermal management) - Good to get people thinking.

  • samson narokobi
    samson narokobi 11 months ago

    Quality content cheers

  • rik VDK
    rik VDK Year ago

    Batterys are not the restraint - micro chips and other components will be. Once the chips catchup, batteries will once again be the restraint.

  • Guy Larabie
    Guy Larabie 10 months ago

    In Canada most of the electricity is generated by hydropower. You should explore this.

  • Fred Frond
    Fred Frond Year ago +1

    I curios to see what the production numbers are for Tesla and BYD.

  • Dave Kozlowski
    Dave Kozlowski Year ago +2

    Don't ramp because you're not making a profit!!???? They wouldn't be making cars if they followed that idea. More production leads to lower cost. Go Tesla Go!!!

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  • Eric Nary
    Eric Nary 11 months ago

    One of your best videos yet.

  • MegaWilderness
    MegaWilderness Year ago +1

    Tesla are dependant on suppliers 100% for LFP batteries. They only assemble Megapacks. These batteries are yet to be made.

  • Aesma
    Aesma Year ago

    Good info, just one small point : the UK isn't phasing out nuclear energy, it's building a new plant right now (Hinkley Point C). Well France and China are building it, but it's in the UK.

    • Alex Manojlovic
      Alex Manojlovic Year ago

      And it's already £billions over budget & will be years late. Standard practise for rip-off nuclear power plants... Other planned pants were cancelled.

  • Ohana Chem-Dry
    Ohana Chem-Dry Year ago

    As I tell people, Tesla is an energy integration company.....

  • ken wicklund
    ken wicklund Year ago +1

    It blows my mind that seeking Alpha said anything good about Tesla!

  • Paul
    Paul Year ago

    We need to break 1000 miles range on the SEMI. The lower ranges are ok for local or close regional operation. I would like to see a lighter tractor and swappable batts under a dedicated trailer. That would allow for real over the road operation coast to coast.

    • Paul
      Paul Year ago

      @Roger Starkey ok if you are assuming a dedicated run that might work. Meaning you somehow have a charger available when you go to the break. Initially I expect we will be primarily dedicated runs so we can charge at the drop while loading or unloading. Most of the time there is time enough at a dock to get a full charge. Like at WalMart DC size locations. Then we charge back at the yard when we come back. Also they might consider charging mid way as mandatory on duty not driving like when we fuel. Yes "we". Not sure what the issue with that word is.
      On the driver range point: 11 hrs at 70 = 770miles. ....yeah. Unless you have a company charger enroute we need to break 770. Thus I'm looking for 1k+ range. When I run long runs i hit 700 at least half of the time. Like west coast to FL for example. I'd like to be able to go at least half way before the charge enroute. Probably in TX on that run. Then it's likel;y my company will need to own it's own chargers at strategic locations for a specific route. I know I dont want to wait in line for that charge. WE don't have time for that.

    • Roger Starkey
      Roger Starkey Year ago +1

      No, "we" don't.
      We need a truck which can Outrange the specified shift time of a driver, multiplied by the normal average speed (actually faster in an EV truck)
      Then, the ability if the truck to accept sufficient charge in the mandatory driver break to complete the second shift.
      .
      So, for "ballpark" argument (may vary)
      70 mph *average* (over terrain..... + regen!) for 7 hours.
      (490 miles)
      40% charge in 30 minutes.
      A 600 mile truck? That's 240 miles.
      3.5 hours at 70 mph average.
      End the day with 100+ miles spare.
      Slow charge overnight (not necessarily at a Megacharger)
      Repeat.
      (That's with a MAX load)

  • Tom Quimby
    Tom Quimby Year ago

    That is great we have enough batteries. but our chip supply is constrained. never mind we can use chips meant for washing machines and code for them.

  • Bill H
    Bill H Year ago

    Do you really need to make much of a profit off the Megapacks if you can make money off of its software? Looks like first mover advantage is what is more important.

  • RedisFun2
    RedisFun2 Year ago

    Power walls/Storage is severely needed in places like California like yesterday in a bad bad way. We are currently the biggest market for solar roofs and solar panels for residential in at least the USA. And now, our CPUC is being lobbied to begin charging a solar tax, or I mean, a power grid fee monthly just to be connected. The demand for power is between 4pm-9pm . Solar can't supply so those owners pull from the grid. But during day, generating too much and sell back to grid, who... Can't store it either. So now the power companies believe they need to charge solar customers rather then invest hard on power storage, and homeowners need to also invest in power storage, but it's not cheap for the average homeowner. Most afforded their solar systems through grants, tax credit off-sets and reduced cost of overall electricity through the selling back to the grid of unneeded power.

    • Laura S.
      Laura S. Year ago

      If the proposed changes to California’s net metering rule are approved even those with residential storage will be required to pay the $8/kW per month solar tax.

  • Antonio Palmero
    Antonio Palmero Year ago

    Great stuff Sam 🇬🇧👍

  • Mr Paul
    Mr Paul Year ago +1

    The Electric LFP Viking. 😂

  • a wolf from among us

    Serious question. How resistant are these large battery units to EMP radiation?

    • a wolf from among us
      a wolf from among us Year ago

      @Hal Eis Thanks Hal. I was actually referring to nefarious use of EMP, and was wondering if they are hardened at all.

    • Hal Eis
      Hal Eis Year ago +1

      I believe your reference to EMP is really a reference to EMF radiation which is Electro Magnetic Field radiation a totally natural field which surrounds electric transmission equipment. I suspect that batteries themselves as the source of the electromagnetic field are not impacted by it just as presumably the battery packs in an EV are not affected. However, humans are negatively impacted by very strong EMF fields which have been shown to cause heightened DNA damage when we are overly and closely exposed to high energy transmission lines. So I think you pose a good question but one long known to be associated with electric equipment and well accounted for.

  • Phil Barker
    Phil Barker Year ago

    Iphone prices have gone up not down.
    The av person does not have off street parking.
    He also needs his one car to do both his daily commute ( charging at overpriced often broken charge points).And his longer journeys- the latter can only be achieved by ICE vehicles.
    Please don’t be patronising to your viewer ( or you’ll lose them).
    He is not as stupid as you seem to think.

  • Eric Swift
    Eric Swift Year ago +1

    They're not battery constrained because they are chip constrained. When enough chips are available, they will become battery constrained.

  • Paul
    Paul Year ago

    I believe we see 2 mil deliveries this year.

  • zodiacfml
    zodiacfml Year ago

    4:40 video seems shot prior earnings call. Elon's statements reveal they are not battery constrained anymore but supply chain issues.

  • ArizonaPoet
    ArizonaPoet 9 months ago

    2030? Battery glut and multiple bankruptcies of battery companies as razor thin margins begin to take their toll.

  • Roger Starkey
    Roger Starkey Year ago +1

    SAM
    There are a few things you're missing, or misinterpreting(?)....
    Imo
    .
    As mentioned elsewhere, Lathrop is not a battery fab plant, it's a storage assembly plant.
    .......
    Tesla cars in the US currently use:
    2170 cells from Nevada (Fremont 3/Y)
    .
    18650 cells from Japan (S/X)
    .
    POSSIBLY CATL LiFePo4 cells(Fremont, SR cars?)
    .
    To this point, "storage" has been built at Nevada ("4GWh"?) Using? .... 2170 cells?.
    .....
    Moving forward, it seems that at least initially the supply map may be.
    .
    The Model Y (only LR/ P?) made in Texas will be using 4680 cells (Kato Road then on site)
    .
    3 LR/P Fremont 2170 from Nevada(?)
    .
    3/Y SR Fremont CATL LiFePo4 (?)
    So every Model Y LR/P not built in Fremont is more than 4,100 2170 cells NOT being used from Nevada?
    ...
    We can add the SR Fremont cars, which once used 2170, now using CATL cells?
    WHAT HAPPENS TO THOSE spare 2170 CELLS?
    .
    That could be well over 60% of the Nevada 2170 capacity?
    .
    To my mind, assuming the existing storage made in Nevada used 2170 (logical?) It would make sense to use all the spare capacity for storage? (Probably 20+ GWh?)
    .
    That's a 6x increase from the current 4GWh Nevada storage output.
    Or, of course, they could buy a similar capacity of lower density cells from CATL? 🤔😜
    .
    Maybe, those 2170 cells could go to powerwalls (more space/ weight critical?)
    .....
    Otherwise, the only logical step would be to sell the capacity to others.....
    Or
    For Panasonic to initiate a phased shutdown, converting to 4680 (which MIGHT make sense due to the Semi plant over the road!!)
    But probably better to "new build" a 4680 line in Nevada which would equal the 2170 capacity, then close the oldest line, and build more 4680..... etc.
    ........
    Either way, it's more complicated than "Just buy cells from CATL"
    That just doesn't make sense!!!!!
    .
    .
    And other things, but I'm busy.

  • Mohammad was illiterate

    *Tesla needs to get those LFP batteries into MEGAPACK as the cost per KW is down to $53*
    🤣😉😉😉😉😉

  • Malcolm Rickarby
    Malcolm Rickarby Year ago

    Good thing that your home state of Victoria has its very big battery already.🇦🇺

  • Joe King
    Joe King 10 months ago

    Sam, UK nuclear might be back on the up. Check out the Rolls Royce "mini nuke" small scale power station. It has had govt. investment.

  • Charles Rovira
    Charles Rovira Year ago

    @10:45 OMFG! Such a *_nice_* problem to have. Being supply-constrained when *_nobody_* is able to compete.

  • zodiacfml
    zodiacfml Year ago +1

    10:46 what is this? 4680 is poor for energy storage and will not use LFP. Elon already stated LFP for standard range and energy storage.

  • harry woods
    harry woods Year ago +1

    . Just a thought, Elon’s comment that LFP batteries are the future is because LFP batteries are the enabling Technology for vehicle to grid🤔

    • Sabret00th Sabret00th
      Sabret00th Sabret00th Year ago +3

      Yes, because EV'S can serve two purposes. The LFP battery cycle life is massive. In the future I imagine having a 200kWh battery in my car (500Wh/kg), which will allow 1000km range (500k towing). The car battery storing all my solar power, with enough storage for 10-20 days of house power. The LFP battery will still probably last a lifetime. Rich productive countries are countries will lots low cost energy.

  • Who Why
    Who Why 11 months ago

    Devoted to energy storage. Yes it’s the biggest. CATL is dedicated to cars, not storage.

  • Simon Pannett
    Simon Pannett 11 months ago

    Shame if it is still chip constrained! Time to produce their own??

  • Peter Wagner
    Peter Wagner Year ago

    Great... when will Tesla be making their own chips?

  • Eugenius Theodidactus

    *Tesla will be battery constrained for at least the next decade.*

  • iCost Hop
    iCost Hop Year ago

    Hey how about giving Sam some help here 😉
    He talks about the *#EV** World"* not just one brand in particular.
    Become a #Patron Member . 👌

  • pbasswil
    pbasswil Year ago

    I notice TSLA slipping again today. Seems like investor confidence in the stock will only become widespread when all other car companies are bankrupt. And even then... :^/

    • pbasswil
      pbasswil Year ago

      @RedisFun2 My point was: What will it take for the markets to recognize Tesla's imminent massive profits (which will in all likelihood continue to balloon, indefinitely) - and value the stock accordingly.

    • RedisFun2
      RedisFun2 Year ago +1

      Bankruptcy doesn't mean out of business. It could actually benefit legacy auto. They can scrap old debt, reorganize, and shore up spending. Thus would then possibly allow for new loans and maybe grants from US government to "bail them out" and transition to EV production without all the ICE debt & assets weighing them down.

  • Vass M
    Vass M Year ago

    another way to change the narrative when revenue stream % increase on storage with less dependency on auto sales

  • Greg Bailey
    Greg Bailey Year ago +1

    Sam, take care with your kW and kWh's! You're mixing them up too much!

  • Learn Progress
    Learn Progress Year ago

    This is beautiful for poor countries like Africa & Indian , nice to give charity to this instead of water one where they are still asking for help to make clean water after 35 years , but each director already got himself a series 5 bmw and big bonus

  • Steven Hoagland
    Steven Hoagland Year ago

    Not loving lower energy density, lower range, and lower performance. Game-changes need to be in the positive direction.

    • Jim Roth
      Jim Roth Year ago

      Check out Elon's explanation of why he prefers LFP for cars (other than for extreme high-performance models). The basic advantages are long useful life, more cycles with less degradation, ability to charge to 100% with no degradation, ability to discharge to zero with no degradation, lower inherent fire risk, lower production cost and more easily available raw materials.

    • Steve Fugate
      Steve Fugate Year ago

      Safer, full capacity availability, longer duty cycle, only LFP for me. Will wait for the better chemistry. Elon agrees

  • colin newton
    colin newton Year ago

    Just wonder what you know about REEAutomotives, what is your opinion. Enjoy your informational videos.

  • Leslie Carter
    Leslie Carter Year ago

    Tesla will have to make a choice. Energy vs semi trucks. Energy will win out commercially so semi will quietly disappear.

  • Raymond May
    Raymond May Year ago +1

    powerwall is 10000 not 100000

  • MVE
    MVE Year ago

    I wonder how much lithium is available? Isn’t it a finite resource? Just like fossils?

  • David Radtke
    David Radtke Year ago

    Tesla said this year they are chip constrained not battery…they will be back to battery constrained next year as new chip fabs come online over the next 12 months.

  • Kof
    Kof Year ago

    Hmmm. I need to buy more stocks

  • Bob Wallace
    Bob Wallace Year ago +1

    Lathrop. Long 'a'. Lay-throp and run the 'throp' together, don't drag it out.

  • UFOlogist
    UFOlogist Year ago

    1:20 BOLOGNA, Batteries were never the constraint to begin with, as Elon has stated several friggin times it is the chip shortage, and has NOTHING to do with battery supplies. 28 minutes of complete bull.