Why This Circle Could Spark Africa’s Biggest War

As an Egyptian, I am fully for the development of the world. I hope that both Egypt and Ethiopia can find a mutually beneficial resolution without hindering the development of either of the countries growth.

Very informative and engaging. It's clear that water scarcity is a major issue in the region, and the potential for conflict over access to water is a cause for concern. Our film crew shed a light on the Ennedi Plateau in northeastern Chad, which is located around 1,500 kilometers to the west of the Nile. This area was once a subtropical climate with large lakes and the Yellow Nile, which was the third main tributary to the River Nile. However, the Yellow Nile has now disappeared, leaving only a few subterranean caverns filled with water, such as the Guelta of Archei. This water source is critical for thousands of camels and several animal species in the region, including the West African crocodile. That's crucial when discussing conflicts in the Nile region, as it highlights the larger issue of water scarcity in the surrounding areas. Thank you for addressing this complex topic.

As an Egyptian, I am really impressed how clearly and unbiased you presented the facts. I am also really glad you highlighted the Tigray disaster. Western Media is acting like it does not exist, and all we ever hear about is Russia and Ukraine. While that is a disaster as well, it is absolutely dwarfed by what happened in the Tigray version in terms of misery and loss of life.
You have my sub, good sir.

Great informative video , you can also talk about Assab Port , How Ethiopia got landlocked and potential for conflict as 120M Ethiopians push for economic growth

As a Sudanese I want to add one thing. Since the filling of dam has already begun the Sudanese government will never cooperate with Egypt to strike the dam, because billions of cubic metres of water will flow through the Nile. Sudan dams are incapable of handling the massive amount of water at once, thus all the city along the nile are threatened with drowning. However, the only option for Sudan is to negotiate an agreement with Ethiopia and Egypt. In fact since 2020 Sudan has more concerns about the dam's safety than its filling.

Amazing reporting! I wish more people would seek out content like this before voicing their opinions on various geopolitical conflicts and situations. A truly amazing job of laying out the facts in a clear and unbiased way. Thank you.

Water conflicts are becoming increasingly common. Similar cases are happening between Turkey and Iraq with dams along the Tigris and Euphrates as well as in South & Southeast Asia where China's dams in Tibet are threatening major rivers like the Indus, Brahmaputra, Ganges & Mekong

A similar situation exists in the US. Much of the agricultural water for Northern Mexico, Southern California and Eastern Arizona comes from the Colorado River. Las Vegas, Nevada with 3 million inhabitants, depends on the Colorado for its existence. There are treaties in place to control this flow but have been fiercely debated since the 1940s The main problem in both regions is manic overpopulation.

23:12 It seems like Ethiopia did actually unilaterally with their fills but, they did them in the rainy season. They did not want to slow the average water flow, but kept their excess water for themselves. that seems like a good compromise. I think as long as they do not restrict from the average flow rate, it is fair.

Thank you, for the informative analysis. As far as I know, Ethiopia uses the Blue Nile water soley to generate electricity, not for irrigation purpose. In addition it is well understood that, the dams in the Sudan and Egypt will significantly get rid of the silt being carried from the Ethiopian highlands in particular, and the other benefit can be electricity can supplied to the Sudan in particular.

This conflict has been brewing for decades. I was at a lecture in the 1980s and even then this area was highlighted as potentially the first 'water war', simply because so many people are dependent on the Nile.

the thing is if Egypt blows up the dam, about 74 billion cubic meters of water would flood Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and severely damage the surrounding areas.

I had an University project on exactly this dam in Ethiopia and wrote a story called “war on water” and found that the chance for a war on water in this century was 75 till 90%, the largest chance was, indeed on the Nile. Nice to see this video about exactly this from a channel that I watch since a long time ago

I respect and empathize both countries to be fair, so sad they struggle to find solution that is going to be satisfying to everyone. I honestly would even send my own money donation if it could help them develop the region and prevent the war even though I am half the world away and it won't affect me at all.

This is my new favorite channel on Clip-Share. Straight forward, unbiased presentation of geopolitical issues. 👏

I side with Ethiopia since they are a completely land locked country. Ethiopia should be able to do what they need to do in their country. Both Egypt and Sudan have access to the ocean which they can desalinate. Yes desalination plants are expensive but it would also mean more jobs for the Egyptian and Sudan people. Maybe instead of buying fancy new jets from the USA and other countries Egypt should invest in desalinating water instead.

Very unfortunate but I find it fascinating when there's no "real" evil side in a conflict. Just two sides that want to do what would benefit them the most.

It seems like this is going to be a win for Africa in the long run. Once the dam is full then Egypt should have more than sufficient water supplies. The issue is filling the dam and what effect it will have and if these countries can cooperate and trust each other. If trust and cooperation can be achieved and a suitable outcome can be reached this will be a huge achievement.

I knew there was stuff being overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.. but I didn’t know it was this atrocious. Up until the last segment of this video, I held out hopes that the governments involved would retain the possibility of an amicable and joint resolution to this problem that really isn’t a problem yet… and then I saw that last segment and it seems like my hopes were pretty much dashed.

To begin with the reporting, this is the only objective video ever presented on this very sensitive issue. As an Ethiopian I want to ask a question for those watching this video. Lets talk the other way. If blue nile was originating from Egypt and it planned to build a dam, would she be open for negotiations with Ethiopia? I really appreciate your comments on this.

Thousands of years ago, the route west out of Egypt wasn't as absolutely impassible as it is today. Desertification has gotten rid of lots and lots of oases, oases that we know were used to supply a trade route from Cyrene to the Nile Delta. The Ptolemies used it to push to Cyrenaica and place it under their control, and the Optimate faction marched a force from Ptolemaic Egypt to Cyrene, then on to Utica during Caesar's Civil War.
Rome conquered Egypt almost last of their big conquests. By the time Ptolemaic Egypt was taken in 32BCE, all of Spain (except a tiny bit in the north), France, the Low Countries, Anatolia, the Levant, Greece, western North Africa, and of course Italy were under Roman control, and Armenia, Georgia, and most of the Balkans were under their hegemony. Only Britain, Dacia, Pannonia, and very briefly Mesopotamia came after, and some minor conquests here and there.

Thank you RealLifeLore. These informative geographical based videos are some of the best (and I watch everything) I've ever had the pleasure to watch.

Great video!
I think Egypt would be in a much better position if they where more understanding and let Ethiopia build their dam from the beginning. Then they probably could have agreed on a good dispute resolution mechanism and they could have proper negotiations regarding the rate of filling the dam. That would've been better for all parties.
I do think Ethiopia should have the right to build this dam and fill their dam in a reasonable time if they also try to cooperate and do what they can minimise the effects downstream.

As an ethiopian i hope that we could solve this issue peacefully,much love to my egyptian brothers and sisters ❤

Amazing video.
3 points.
-Evaporation proofing and desalination are the keys to water security for all nations.
-Water wars need more coverage and assistance in solutions.
-Filling the GERD during monsoons seems like a very reasonable thing to do.

You must have a great research team. So well informed and shared. I didn’t know the Nile flowed north and natural geography supplies it.

Ethiopia is insisting to develop just like Egypt. More than 95% of Egyptian population has electricity access. Whereas it's below 50% in Ethiopia. It's not simply fair to let an entirely 86% of Nile water originating from Ethiopia and should benefit Egypt only. Egypt should come up with a win win situation and offering reasonable solutions than hindering Ethiopia from using the Nile all alone. Ethiopia has never wanted and surely will never has an intention to utilize the water alone. It's God's gift for all the entire nations in the course (10 countries). Not only Ethiopia, all of these nations should utilize with their share, including Egypt which is largely dependent on the Nile.

Petroleum shaped geopolitics of the twentieth century. Access to and control of water will define geopolitics well into the twenty first century.
FWIW: I joined Nebula because of high quality content creators like you. I encourage all who appreciate quality content like this to join.

This could either be a great opportunity for both countries cooperation in reaching common goals, improve their citizens lives and their respective regions, or a disastrous step for both countries to clash, ruin their citizens lives, destabilize the surrounding regions and create waves of refugees. Something tells me that it's more prone to end up the second way, but there are always surprises so, it might also end up differently.

It's very unlikely that bombs could destroy the dam. Infrastructure associated with the dam could be damaged, but destroying the dam structure itself is unlikely.

If for whatever reason Egypt decides to go to war with Ethiopia over the Nile River, I will happily and proudly die for Ethiopia. Egypt has been benefiting from the Nile without any interference for centuries and now Ethiopia decides to build the damn to help its population, and Egypt wants to make a big deal. This is about power for Egypt with the help of the Arab league.

Thank you for covering this! Great video.
One thing the video didn’t go into detail about, though… is what capabilities Ethiopia (and its allies) would have to retaliate against Egypt. Egypt is, after all, a long ways away. And, as noted, the Egyptian air force is significantly larger and more advanced. I don’t really see an Ethiopian army attempting to invade and conquer Sudan on its way to Egypt. Nor do I see any other options for retaliation by land forces… so, that leaves… what exactly? I don’t foresee any kind of meaningful naval action… so, then I’m confused as to what a war between the two nations would look like realistically.

To put the wheat consumption statistic in perspective, all throughout history, Egypt has been a tremendous EXPORTER of wheat. Now, all of a sudden, a population boom turns them into a net importer. This is some terrifying land mismanagement. They're using up all their good land for housing and commercial uses, rather than farming.

This was has been going on for awhile between my country and Egypt’s, glad it’s being shared. So happy to see this video having 2 million views

Once again an issue that I had no clue about being well researched and presented. Thank you so much for your work, I enjoy these videos alot! Also thanks to the natives commenting in all the videos who point out things that might be wrong, always fun to see all the sides of the issue and try to learn what's percieved as "correct" :)

Two key facts missed in this. Immigration rules were very strict until the 1990s. There are still restrictions on immigration numbers. Second, in the age of Sailing Ships, the South Island was closer to Europe via a direct trade wind from the cape of South Africa. In the modern age, Auckland is closer to our trade routes. Hence the population shift from north to south has a lot to do with changes in technology.

Ahmed Ibrahim, your comment is what is needed in this time of division and hate. I am an Ethiopian . There are many powers which are visible and murky who levitate in the affairs of others. Few years ago I was on a vacation about 110 km outside of Addis Abeba Ethiopia with my children. I met two Egyptians and we started talking about many issues as we watched our children swim together in harmony. I know it's very simplistic to compare childrens play to water security, but whoever put this doomsday scenario video probably would like to see war between us. If one of us or both deal in despotism, that might create an environment of doom. I read long ago "there is no victory in war"! I hope both our nations,which are ancient, will be seasoned enough not to choose a path of war! A war with no possibility of success.

If this conflict ever starts to seriously heat up as the second scenario suggests in the event of drought, I would wager it has the potential to facilitate diplomatic talks with South Sudan and Israel.

What an excellent presentation! I just watched it in my extremely limited timeline.
It is the choice of the two countries to come to a table and find a win-win solution. Otherwise, any external influence and selfish approach could only trigger a useless war leading ultimately neither has won.

Oh! I wrote a paper on this very recently, in like November or so. One point you didn't mention really is Sudan's interesting part in the conflict. Historically, Sudan sided with Egypt, citing similar claims of historic rights and fears of water insecurity. However, Sudan experiences deadly seasonal flooding from the nile, and around 2013ish the country figured that the dam could actually help prevent future floods, which for context, in 2020 alone killed over 100 people and affected 875k others, and led to tons of infrastructure and crop loss. The GERD may also allow Sudan's many smaller hydroelectric dams to produce of to 36% more energy and reduce maintenance costs for them. However, this posititivity towards the dam has stopped since the Al Fashaga border dispute has escalated.
Another huge issue in the conflict is that the two countries have not come to a consensus on the downstream consequences of the dam, making any policy very loose with no real meaning. Egypt wants a binding policy that ensures fixed water release; Ethiopia doesn’t. Egypt believes the 20th-century agreements are still valid; Ethiopia does not recognize them as such. Egypt believes the U.S. and the UN should be involved (who, btw, have historically sided w Egypt); Ethiopia advocates for AU involvement (which, btw, is headquartered in Ethiopia). The two countries couldn't even agree on the conduction of IPoE and ESIA assessments to establish a foundation of scientific knowledge. The governments of both countries have also both advocated for an all or nothing mindset, and there is little to no trust between them. In order to reach a compromise, both parties must be willing to make concessions and cooperate in ways that current ideological views are not conducive to.

It's absolutely crazy that I've never once heard of the Tigray war, a conflict that killed perhaps x20 as many in the war in Ukraine. They're both horrific tragedies but it's just crazy that one of them never gets mentioned.

Love your stuff! Could you make a video with brief descriptions on every ongoing conflict in the world in 2023? Civil wars, border crises, etc...

Thank you for the video! It was incredibly informative and engaging. I really enjoyed learning about the fascinating country, and the visuals were stunning.

I would be interested in seeing how much of the current situation in Sudan is indirectly linked to the power struggle between Egypt and Ethiopia and their backers.
A Sudan more aligned to Egypt is in their favour, but a Sudan controlled by those with backing from Russia may play to Ethiopia’s favour

I enjoy these videos so much. Thank you, Realifelore, again . The historical research is so important. Water is becoming increasingly important in many countries.

Fantastic video, I look forward to checking out your other content. Very organized and informative Great job!

I think quite a similar situation is happening along the Mekong river in Southeast Asia. Its amazing how easy people overlook rivers as a geopolitical issue.

I just read a paper linking Blue Nile volume to the El Niño oscillation. El Niño caused less water and La Niña caused more water flow. Well, during the last few years we've had La Nina, but now we are likely heading into an El Nino, which does not bode well for the pace of filling the reservoir and potential droughts.

Thank you very much for such a comprehensive video. As I'm very aware of the topic, I here by confirm that all of your assessments, in such a sophisticated topic, were spot on and precise. I was reading the comments below and some haven't even got the logic to use their brains on such a delicate situation, some are stating solutions that far away from practicality (I'm an engineer with 35 years experience) and others are going on harsh statements based on what they were brainwashed by their local TV (typical story).
It is sad that there is a lot of historical enmity, based on past historical stubbornness and actions, in addition of countries that were occupying the region and only cared for their interest. The echo of all enmity is still echoing to this particular day. I'm a firm believer in Africa and its potential as being the future, but looking at the past and living in it and reacting accordingly would lead to total destruction instead of development.
From the way I see it it doesn't look so good; Trump was right, what would a country on the brink of dying out of thirst do? They are dead anyway, and this is not a joke or few mega watts of electricity. This is human lives we are talking about here and this comes on TOP of MY LIST, but if those lives are not considered; whether they are Egyptian or Ethiopians then I fear that that Nile would be red and both countries will be eliminated accordingly.

Thanks for the effort and for making these videos! So important for everyone to see! Many thanks !!! ❤

It doesn't make any sense that Egypt believes it has any rights beyond it's borders. To make it worse, they cited an agreement unilaterally made by them and the UK - a colonial power - without the consideration of the rights of those inhabiting the country with the most significant tributary of the Nile 🤦🏾‍♂️. 🇿🇦🇪🇹

I love geopolitics because it is very simple. It always goes like, two countries hate each other because British designed them that way.

As an Ethiopian that’s aware of current politics around the dam, this is by far the most underrated, unbiased, uncomplicated reporting of the issue. Thank you RLL! Also will like to add that Ethiopia is not planning to fill during drought years. we’re not inconsiderate. However it is our right to live, build, prosper over the Nile, and thus will make sure this dam reaches its full operational stage while mitigating all issues Egypt faces regarding water security.

Perfect neutral explaining , As an egyption we hope we reach a managing agreement with our Ethiopian brothers in the future so it benefits our mutual resources growth .

One thing that hits me like a ton of bricks is that Egypt should consider consulting the Saudis, who have managed to turn vast tracts of desert into farmland and also use desalination plants to get their water. Another idea would be to merge the economies of Egypt and Ethiopia, so that in using the same currency, they would both be negatively affected by each other's misfortunes, thereby making it a matter of mutual benefit to help each other. This could be done without either country relinquishing control of their respective governments. This has worked in the EU with the Euro. In fact, both solutions could possibly be used to some degree. The Saudis could also possibly teach the Ethiopians how to create better farmland, if they are experts in terraforming desert lands. I think it is far better for countries to share their bread and oil, instead of destroying each other.
I will go one step further and suggest that since Sudan and Uganda are also involved in the flow of water in the Nile and their decisions will also affect their neighbors going forward, it would probably be a good idea to have them involved in the process also. It would possibly be helpful to see a regional currency develop in the area, where it may help to provide employment, supplies and an end to suffering of peoples in less fortunate areas of the Nile region. If it stopped war in Sudan, that would also be great. I am aware that there are a great many differences amongst the tribes and beliefs there, but I think Ethiopia should be considered a shining example of what happens when a government decides to allow and encourage a melting pot of cultures, instead of one culture oppressing all others. Some people reading this may resent my ideas, but ideas like mine might mean the difference between people they support living or dying. I am frankly tired of all of the suffering among African nations, largely due to ignorance and the strong exploiting the weak, always. Some people need to learn to live and let live.

To be completely honest with you I’m embarrassed that I am only just now becoming aware of such a catastrophic conflict. Thank you for educating me on these issues.

Great video. Scary situation because it seems like it can only end one of two ways (neither good).... 1) the slow death of Egypt. Either through economic collapse or uprising/civil war OR 2) A massive war in Eastern Africa that likely includes Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and possibly others. And I think the war is the more likely outcome. Probably by the late 2020's.

If vast shallow lakes could be created and covered with a transparent material, the Sun could evaporate the water quickly due to the rays being trapped (infra red) by the transparent covering, the water could be condensed and collected. The bottoms of these lakes should be black in order to assist heat absorption. An engineer would have to design an efficient way to condense and collect the water. The salt could be collected periodically. These lakes would have to be immense and many would be needed. The covering would need to be supported by columns spaced across the lakes. This would be expensive to create, but the pay off would be worth the investment. If a vacuum could be created within the lake/transparent covering, the evaporation rate would be increased. Solar power could generate electricity to run the vacuum machines.

Hydro can be developed as run-of-the-river, with some minor River modifications there would be no large reservoirs and little disturbance of Downstream flow. Still have the same amount of water flow going Downstream, but run-of-the-river Hydro is much less disruptive. You have a turbine could be Underground partially divert part of the river through it and it comes out the other end

It's so sad that I never heard anything about this conflict before. I try to be aware of these types of dark episodes and this is a horrible example of if there's someone who doesn't want to share information about something, you can hardly find anything about it.
Thank you so much for creating this video, it was really amazing and moving. I hope the Clip-Share algorithm doesn't discourage you from sharing these types of conflicts.
Greetings from Mexico.

This is an issue I've been following for years. Let's hope Ethiopia acts rationally in filling its dam reservoir. This would likely end up being a proxy war between Western/Arab nations vs China/Russia. This is extremely dangerous.

I'll admit as a north-eastern American... I have been trying to keep my finger on the pulse of global geopolitics, but the kick off of a full scale conflict on feb 24th definitely had me put on the blinders due to a NATO bias. im not trying to shame myself or defend my viewpoints, but i do notice the bias and fixation a "westerner" may have on Ukraine. this video also helped me start to draw the connections of all the Eurasian/Afro-Arabic "world-island" conflicts together. a strained grain trade between rus/ukr and egypt could start a domino effect far greater than the Arib Spring. I am starting to realize the political weight of this global conflict.

Thank you very much for the knowledge you shared and now we know exactly what has been happening between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Imagine Canada threatening America not to build a dam on water that originates on American soil…
This world is all about who got the power not who’s right or wrong.

This is so interesting because, to me, this feels like a global development for the benefit of all people in the Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt. Storing water is only a net positive for all countries, and assuming Ethiopia is a good actor, it will allow Ethiopia to give water when neededs. It's also only one of two sources to the greater Nile. It seems like the real problem here is that Ethiopia will be gaining power and Egypt doesn't like that. Nationalism has the potential to ruin the global development.

Funny timing for this video, I just returned from Egypt where I visited the high dam and Lake Nasser among other areas. The locals are quite concerned about this issue and it’s well presented here. It’s like you heard me talking and released this video, learned a lot more about it as well. A couple further things to consider as well are the Egyptian governments current investments in to irrigation canals and developing of the south of the country in general. This will take further water from the lake and ensure more people live in the more dry southern egyptian climate.

This is an amazing and unbiased video that explains both sides very clearly.

I can't believe I'm learning of this war for the first time and it only happened last year. Humans are some of the most disgusting things on this planet while at the same time being capable of being the most wonderful...I just wish more of us could be good and let everyone live happily

As an Egyptian I really hope our brothers can fulfill their country's needs and their people. The nile belongs to all of us but certainly to Ethiopia first. I up for that GERD development as long we get some then it's cool with me :DDD

You know, that fact that Ethiopia decided only to fill their dam during rainy monsoons seasons sounds like a good compromise. They could've cut the water outright, but they're being considerate to countries down river. In all honesty, I think the real issue Egypt has is losing control over the Nile. CONTROL CONTROL CONTROL. That's what this is really about.

Seems like the ultimate problem is Egypt's insane overpopulation (which is an issue in almost every country in Africa). Fertile though it is, the Lower Nile simply cannot support 100+M people -- maybe half that and the rest as farmland. Ethiopia is also overpopulated. Birthrates are falling in most countries to the point even pessimists expect world pop. to peak before 2100, if die-offs caused by drought and/or war don't do it earlier. Long term, fewer humans is the best thing.

I was in Ethiopia last year during the war but it didn’t seem like there was one going on. Life seemed like normal in the capital, can’t believe 600k were killed. That’s crazy.

This video is really interesting and informative. A bundle of thanks from my side as I didn't know about this issue before.

Egypt could use Lake Nasser to mitigate any water "losses" for the short period of time it takes to fill the GERD. They could request international aid if a hypothetical drought occurs. They could come to the table peacefully, without threatening Ethiopia.
They've done none of that. They've thrown tantrums over water they don't control. War has never solved Egypt's problems, but it seems to be the only solution they've ever considered.

This was excellent. I learned so much about an issue that I am willfully ignorant about. Thank you for educating

I think that it's all a complicated situation, dams have been proven to hold back silt, which is necessary for Egypt , but the flow control is actually very important for downstream living people. It's complicated but I think a mutual agreement would be within reach

I love these vids, cause they are important - for nave persons to understand the world; with it's conflicts and etc, is not as straightforward as one may think. Things.. no matter what is more complicated than you would think,

the European union once floated the idea of filling the dam in 15 years and Egypt would pay Ethiopia for delaying the filling. but with the economic situation in Egypt that ship has long sailed into the abyss.

There must be precedent for dealing with this issue, I can't imagine this is the first conflict about access to water. They will come to an agreement eventually, a military strike would be asinine just like a rapid filling of the reservoir would be

I'm all for Ethiopia trying to improve the lives of its citizens, but their government has to understand that their actions may thrust more people into poverty than they are saving. It may even completely collapse the Egyptian government

This seems political and personal and historical but what I can gather is that Ethiopia seems to want to gain control to improve conditions within their country which is admirable but to put whole countries at such a disadvantage seems extreme, HOWEVER, I feel Sudan and Egypt should’ve had a plan c-z in the event water supply is cut for any reason especially being aware it could happen at any time. I hope a peaceful resolution is reached.

Great video, very informative and well put together!

Cairo isn’t the largest urban area in Africa. It’s 2nd to Lagos, Nigeria. Look it up, it’s the biggest city in Africa. What i find really interesting is that these two countries with the most urban populations are also the wealthiest in Africa so that had a part in their economies. Nigeria has the highest GDP in Africa & Egypt has the 2nd.

9 minutes in and I'm thinking "damn, I just learned a lot about something I had no idea about and didn't think I'd even care about, but here I am, fascinated". You're an amazing teacher and I look forward to the rest of this, just wanted to express the feeling.

I hope someone's working on a more efficient and economical way to desalinate large quantities of seawater. California needs this right now. Many countries could prosper and grow.

Surely from the perspective of the Egyptian government, relying so heavily on a single water source is a problem even at the best of times. I know water desalination programs are expensive, but surely that’s an option with the huge coastline that the country possesses?

GO ETHIOPIA! We are with you, onward and upward! How can Egypt tell another country what to do in this own land.?!?

I hope the Ethiopians have learned from this destructive war and look forward in developing their nation to prevent poverty and not to be just a prey for their enemies.

By the way half of the white nile water that goes to egypt is from in Ethiopia by the river we called Baro and the other called it akobo but the real amount of the nile water reached egypt averagely is around 87% is from Ethiopia and the other is from white nile from lake victoria

As a Sudanese American, I can attest to the factual and unbiased reporting of this documentary.
Thank you for this authentic work of journalism!

What hasn't been discussed here is the danger of spite. Relations are clearly tense between both nations at the moment, but a military action against the GERD, and a consequent war is a very dangerous proposition for everyone involved, or even vaguely adjacent. The sheer amount of damage both countries can inflict on one another, and their neighbours and the environment in the process, can honestly not be understated.
In the case of Egypt, especially if they were to garner the cooperation of Sudan, their superiour military power could easily roll over the politically unstable country of Ethiopia; even if it came to an all-out guerrila conflict and the war ground to a halt, the unfair military situation would mean all the devastation would be exclusively taking place on foreign soil.
Historically, soldiers on foreign soil, especially from a country dealing with its own serious socio-political issues, _especially_ if these soldiers are in a position of power, have been proven... 'forgetful' when it comes to Rules of Engagement and the Geneva Convention. Yer darn rootin' tootin' Yew Es of Ay has been doing an excellent job of crafting examples of that over the past five decades or so. But who can blame them, they're descended from the very colonials that still shape the boundaries of all African nations today, as they say the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. I digress. Point is, should things escalate into a war, Egypt's military would blow Ethiopia straight back to the stone age and ensure a future of decades - if not centuries - of more poverty and political strife in the country.
The Ethiopian people, however, would see a Western colonial lackey coming back to put his boots in their face once again, just as they're on the cusp of achieving the impossible and uplifting themselves out of poverty. Egypt is not just standing in the way of their success, it is directly responsible for increased suffering. If that dam falls, the Ethiopians will feel they have nothing left to lose, and that is one _spicy_ situation to find yourself in if you are in control of 80% of the perceived culprit's fresh water. What they'd do, I can obviously not predict, but Egypt would essentially be insulting the cook before dinner is served.
And then there is Sudan, caught in the middle of this. Should Egypt invade, it's Sudan that would have to contend with military assets tearing through their country and airspace. Should Ethiopia retaliate by sending something downriver? It'd be Sudan who suffers first and foremost. For them, doing whatever they can to ensure an amicable relationship between the militarily superiour Egypt and the strategically situated Ethiopia is not just a matter of international politics, it's a matter of life or death. Sadly, Sudan isn't exactly the most stable country either, and struggling with its own ethnic and economic strife leaves little room for worry about two neighbours duking it out on its lawn.
The majority of these problems, by the way, come as a direct result of colonial and post-colonial meddling by the West. Both Ethiopia and Egypt were historically very technologically and culturally advanced countries, with robust systems of government and a large population base. There's a very good reason Egypt is a 'cradle of civilisation' and one of the biggest at that, having been continually inhabited for longer than humans have had the idea to stack rocks on top of one another. And while some of the world's oldest structures are in modern-day Egypt, some of the world's oldest human remains come directly from the Southeast African rift valleys, turning up fossils of millions of years old of our ancestors inhabiting the area. And that's not even mentioning the magnificent kingdom that was Ethiopia when Europeans returned to burn it down. Their poverty is the direct result of centuries of slavery and abuse by Western powers, but so is their ethnic divide.
All over the continent, you'll find country borders drawn by white men half a world away; and all over the continent, you find incredibly diverse cultures clashing with one another because they were forced by these borders to live where they could not. By deciding to enforce the borders they drew, Western colonisers doomed an entire continent to centuries suffering and misery while washing their hands of the whole affair, stating that they are 'free' now to 'do what -we- they please' and that is somehow supposed to make up for centuries of oppression and abuse. To this day, it is still the single most horrible act of indifferent cruelty humanity has inflicted upon itself, aside from choosing to commit this oppression and abuse in the first place; and its aftershocks will continue to be felt until every border is redrawn by native hands (be it with pen or sword), or humanity's last flames burn out.
TL;DR Stalin wasn't original, he just wasn't Western European before the 1920s. What he did to Russia, Europe did to Africa, and now we're here.

Egypt (among many other countries) is now paying the price of not addressing their demographic explosion in the previous decades.
This is the "elephant in the room" of many environmental challenges around the world : natural ressources (energy, minerals, water, etc) are finite and yet entire countries and continent behaved as if it was not.
The entire world should focus on a full-fledged effort to curb the global human population's increase.
If it's not done in a controlled way, it WILL happen through famines, wars, pandemics etc.

24:19 The point about blowing a dam with a level of 74 km3 of water behind it is suicidal to both Sudan and Egypt. It's like a small sea but flooding like a tsunami. we all know that when the Nile overfloods it destroys everything until it reaches Mediterranean, now imagine a whole lake doing so. Blowing a dam so that a lake larger than lake tana would flow right above me is the stupidest solution! even worse than thirst!

The Sahara did not historically act as a barrier to commerce as you so phrase it. In fact, West and East Africa were home to sprawling trade networks the spanned from the Senegal all the way to India and the furthest reaches of the Islamic world.
The Sahara is a barrier only to those who cannot or refuse to deal with it. Bedouins were and still are quite literally “built different”, and they took advantage of their unique position to facilitate that desert-defying commerce.

Has Egypt looked at filling the empty Qattara Depression, which is below sea level, forming a lake, and hydro electric plant? The water of the lake created will precipitate rainfall. It will also be a transport artery using boats.

Hey there, thanks for sharing your perspective as an Ethiopian on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the current political tensions surrounding it. It's great to hear that Real Life Lore's reporting on this issue is accurate and informative.

Let’s hope they find a peaceful solution. Seems a more nuanced issue than you usually see in geopolitics

It would be completely stupid to leave the river be, and use a incremental decimal point of the desert for solar generation and energy storage :) It could literaly power ALL of the regions powers without any concerns for else.

This is why self sufficiency is key to global peace. Don't ask others to forfeit rights that are most geologically fundamental to it's citizens. That doesn't mean that commerce, trade can't financially compensate losses according to amicable agreements which self sufficiency generally and typically, commonly sustains

i know it would be hella expensive, but couldnt theoretically Egypt do the same that Israel is doing with turning the salt water into a drinkanble one (desalination)? but i guess they would need much MUCH more than Israel is currently desalinating